Market Summary
1. Corn Market Outlook
- USDA WASDE Report:
- U.S. corn usage slightly increased for feed and ethanol, total use adjusted to 14.605 billion bushels.
- Ending stocks reduced by 50 million bushels to 2.122 billion bushels, season-average price reduced to $4.70.
- South American corn production slightly reduced, with Argentina down 1 MMT, Brazil steady.
- USDA's Brazilian corn production estimate higher than pre-report trade expectations.
- Soybean Market:
- USDA held production estimates steady for Argentina and Brazil.
- Market expected increase for Argentina, decrease for Brazil.
- USDA's Brazilian soybean production estimate at the upper end of pre-report expectations.
- Ethanol Production:
- Average daily production for the week ending April 5: 1.056 million barrels.
- Corn used for the week: 104.82 million bushels.
- Cumulative corn use for the crop year: 3.209 billion bushels.
- Dollar Index:
- Rallied by +1.04% on strong U.S. March CPI report, boosting T-note yields and dampening Fed rate cut outlook.
- Fed swap markets now priced 50 bp of rate cuts for 2024, less than last week's 75 bp.
2. CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified in provided content.
3. U.S. Weather/Crop Progress
- Highlights:
- Warm, dry weather in the West promoting fieldwork and crop development.
- High temperatures in California's Central Valley and parts of the Desert Southwest.
- Mild, mostly dry conditions in Plains states favoring spring fieldwork and winter wheat development.
- Rain showers in the Corn Belt, with mild, dry weather in the remainder of the Midwest.
- Localized flooding in the South from eastern Texas to the Mississippi Delta.
- Outlook:
- Storm system crossing the western Gulf Coast region will drift northeastward.
- Severe-weather threat will diminish slightly starting April 11.
- Steady rain will spread from the mid-South into the eastern Corn Belt.
- New Pacific storm system will veer toward California before moving inland during the weekend.
4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- DDGS Prices: Averaged $179 per short ton in the April 5 National Weekly Ethanol Report.
- DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 1.17, down from 1.20 last week.
- DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.52, down slightly from 0.54 last week.
5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Ocean Freight Comments:
- Second passage opened for maritime vessels to access the Port of Baltimore.
- Main navigation channel remains blocked following the MV Dali collision.
- Houthis mounted an attack on four vessels in the Red Sea.
- Water levels of Panama’s Gatun Lake are bottoming and poised to rise.
- Baltic Dry Index ended the week down 7% to an index of 1,587.
- Ocean Freight Rates:
- U.S. Gulf to Japan: Down 1% to $61.09 per metric ton.
- Pacific Northwest to Japan: Down 3% to $27.29 per metric ton.
- U.S. Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico: Rebounded 21% to $12.23 per metric ton on a Supramax vessel.
6. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn:
- Net sales of 325,500 MT for 2023/2024, a marketing-year low.
- Exports of 1,556,800 MT, down 5% from the previous week but up 10% from the prior 4-week average.
- Barley:
- No net sales or exports reported for the week.
- Sorghum:
- Net sales of 5,200 MT for 2023/2024, down 55% from the previous week and 80% from the prior 4-week average.
- Exports of 145,000 MT, unchanged from the previous week but up 41% from the prior 4-week average.
