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市场展望——2024年4月11日

2024-04-11 美国谷物协会 GHK

Market Summary

1. Corn Market Outlook

USDA WASDE Report:
- U.S. corn usage slightly increased for feed and ethanol, total use adjusted to 14.605 billion bushels.
- Ending stocks reduced by 50 million bushels to 2.122 billion bushels, season-average price reduced to $4.70.
- South American corn production slightly reduced, with Argentina down 1 MMT, Brazil steady.
- USDA's Brazilian corn production estimate higher than pre-report trade expectations.
Soybean Market:
- USDA held production estimates steady for Argentina and Brazil.
- Market expected increase for Argentina, decrease for Brazil.
- USDA's Brazilian soybean production estimate at the upper end of pre-report expectations.
Ethanol Production:
- Average daily production for the week ending April 5: 1.056 million barrels.
- Corn used for the week: 104.82 million bushels.
- Cumulative corn use for the crop year: 3.209 billion bushels.
Dollar Index:
- Rallied by +1.04% on strong U.S. March CPI report, boosting T-note yields and dampening Fed rate cut outlook.
- Fed swap markets now priced 50 bp of rate cuts for 2024, less than last week's 75 bp.

2. CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures

Current Market Values: Not specified in provided content.

3. U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

Highlights:
- Warm, dry weather in the West promoting fieldwork and crop development.
- High temperatures in California's Central Valley and parts of the Desert Southwest.
- Mild, mostly dry conditions in Plains states favoring spring fieldwork and winter wheat development.
- Rain showers in the Corn Belt, with mild, dry weather in the remainder of the Midwest.
- Localized flooding in the South from eastern Texas to the Mississippi Delta.
Outlook:
- Storm system crossing the western Gulf Coast region will drift northeastward.
- Severe-weather threat will diminish slightly starting April 11.
- Steady rain will spread from the mid-South into the eastern Corn Belt.
- New Pacific storm system will veer toward California before moving inland during the weekend.

4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)

DDGS Prices: Averaged $179 per short ton in the April 5 National Weekly Ethanol Report.
DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 1.17, down from 1.20 last week.
DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.52, down slightly from 0.54 last week.

5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads

Ocean Freight Comments:
- Second passage opened for maritime vessels to access the Port of Baltimore.
- Main navigation channel remains blocked following the MV Dali collision.
- Houthis mounted an attack on four vessels in the Red Sea.
- Water levels of Panama’s Gatun Lake are bottoming and poised to rise.
- Baltic Dry Index ended the week down 7% to an index of 1,587.
Ocean Freight Rates:
- U.S. Gulf to Japan: Down 1% to $61.09 per metric ton.
- Pacific Northwest to Japan: Down 3% to $27.29 per metric ton.
- U.S. Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico: Rebounded 21% to $12.23 per metric ton on a Supramax vessel.

6. U.S. Export Statistics

Corn:
- Net sales of 325,500 MT for 2023/2024, a marketing-year low.
- Exports of 1,556,800 MT, down 5% from the previous week but up 10% from the prior 4-week average.
Barley:
- No net sales or exports reported for the week.
Sorghum:
- Net sales of 5,200 MT for 2023/2024, down 55% from the previous week and 80% from the prior 4-week average.
- Exports of 145,000 MT, unchanged from the previous week but up 41% from the prior 4-week average.

Market Perspectives April 11, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA released its updated WASDE report on April 11, 2024. This report brought mixed news to the cornmarket with a slight increase in U.S. corn usage for feed and for ethanol production which resulted in a50-million-bushel adjustment to total usage and bringing total use to 14.605 billion bushels. However,even though ending stocks were reduced by 50 million bushels to 2.122 billion bushels, the season-average price was reduced by 5 cents per bushel to $4.70. U.S. corn ending stocks were slightly higherthan the average of pre-report trade expectations but still near the middle of the range of expectations. South American corn production was reduced slightly by USDA, dropping 1 MMT in Argentina, butholding Brazil steady with the production estimate in March. The drop in Argentinian corn productionmatched pre-report trade expectations, but USDA’s Brazilian corn production number was 2.25 MMThigher than the trade pre-report estimate and at the top of the range. The higher Brazilian cornproduction number by USDA also led to world ending stocks for corn than the trade expected. For soybeans, USDA held production estimates for Argentina and Brazil at the same levels as reported inMarch. The market was expecting an increase for Argentina but a 3 to 7 MMT decrease for Brazil. TheUSDA estimate of 155 MMT of soybean production for Brazil was at the upper end of the range of pre-report expectations and world soybean ending stocks also were higher than trade expectations.Unrelated to today’s WASDE report, but relevant to the market’s expectations, the Brazilian cropagency, CONAB, reduced their estimates of Brazilian corn and soybean production to 110.9 MMT ofcorn, and 146.5 MMT of soybeans. There is now an 8.5 MMT gap between CONAB’s estimate of the sizeof the Brazilian crop and USDA’s estimate of the Brazilian crop. This is the largest gap ever between theestimates of the two agencies. Ethanol average daily production for the week ending April 5 averaged 1.056 million barrels. This is anew high daily production for this week of the year. The previous high was 1.034 million barrels per dayin 2018. This was down 1.6% from last week and up 10.1% from last year. The amount of corn used forthe week is estimated at 104.82 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached3.209 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 103.65 million bushels per week to meet the USDA'smarketing year forecast of 5.400 billion bushels. The dollar index on Wednesday rallied by +1.04% and posted a 4-3/4 month high. The dollar racedhigher Wedne

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