市场展望——2024年4月4日

Market Perspectives April 4, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the task of reducing inflation is ongoing and thecentral bank requires more assurance of easing price pressures before considering interest rate cuts. Buthe also reaffirmed the Fed’s intention to cut interest rates this year, despite the recent surge ineconomic activity, and premises the decision to cut rates on the expectation of declining inflation in themonths ahead. Powell highlighted indicators suggesting the labor market is less constrained than inprevious years, alleviating concerns of simultaneous increases in wages and prices. Despite marketexpectations indicating at least three rate cuts this year, Fed officials are expressing caution abouteasing monetary policy too quickly, aiming to strike a balance between controlling inflation andpreventing an economic slowdown. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has said that rates should likelynot be reduced until the fourth quarter of this year. In the wake of the collapse of the Baltimore bridge blocking that port, efforts to locate and rerouteshipments to other ports are underway, with estimates suggesting a weekly trade impact of around $1.7billion. Major container shipping lines have declared force majeure, indicating that they won't cover theadded transport costs to alternate ports. As a result, shippers and logistics operators are facingincreased transportation expenses. Automotive and heavy machinery industries are particularlyaffected, with car carriers and manufacturers experiencing disruptions and financial losses. The closureof the shipping channel has also led to traffic diversions and increased costs for truckers, affecting theirroutes and fuel expenses.With regard to exports of agricultural products, in 2023, over 605,000 metrictons (MT) of agricultural products were exported from Baltimore corresponding to nearly $650 million invalue. This equates to just 0.3% of total U.S. ag exports by quantity and 0.4% by value. In terms ofvolume, 415,678 MT of soybeans were exported from Baltimore in 2023, or 0.9% of all U.S. soybeanexports, valued at $243 million. In terms of value, the largest export destinations for agriculturalproducts leaving Baltimore were Taiwan, China and Colombia. Technically the corn market pushed down to support levels below the 50-day moving average andseems to have run out of sellers and the same thing in soybeans. U.S. farmer selling has dried up asprices retreated from last Thursday's report day highs. We're hearing that farmers are just notinterested in selling corn and soybeans unless