市场展望——2024年7月11日

Market Perspectives July 11, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook U.S. weather in the primary corn growing regions has seen moderate temperatures and fairlywidespread rainfall for the past several weeks and crop conditions going into pollination are relativelygood compared to recent years. The eastern Cornbelt has been somewhat dry and as the remnants ofHurricane Beryl moved up the Mississippi Valley and Ohio River Valley it left good amounts of rain in itswake. Many areas in the eastern Cornbelt received 4 to 5 inches of rain in the past week. Hottemperatures are in the forecast for the western Cornbelt in the 10-day forecast but with very good soilmoisture conditions, this round of hot temperatures should not create any significant problems as thecorn crop enters the pollination stage and soybeans begin the reproductive stages of development. At current prices, stocks-to-use models are suggesting that the trade is expecting a 183 bushel/acre U.S.national corn yield. A crop-condition model from the University of Illinois reported this week that basedon the most recent crop conditions, that model is predicting a national corn yield of 179.7 bushels/acre.It is likely that USDA in their July WASDE report will continue to use the trendline yield that they haveused in the past couple of reports of 181 bushels/acre. It is expected that USDA will update the plantedand harvested acreage in the WASDE report with the information from the June Planted Acreage Reportwhich will increase both planted acres and harvested acres for corn. It is not likely that USDA will adjustharvested acres for acres that have been flooded in northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, or southeastSouth Dakota until at least the August report and most likely in the October WASDE report. Best-guessestimates of flooded corn acres is between 1.2 to 1.8 million acres nationally. Analyst pre-report estimates for corn production range from 14.86 billion bushels to 15.11 billionbushels with the average of the analyst estimates being 15.063 billion bushels. The average analystestimate of soybean production pre-report is 4.42 billion bushels with a range of 4.335 billion bushels to4.436 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates of 2023-24 ending stocks are 1.997-2.122 billion bushels forcorn with an average estimate of 2.049 billion bushels. The soybean estimated ending stocks for 2023-24 range from 0.329-0.390 billion bushels with an average estimate of 0.355 billion bushels. For bothcorn and soybeans, analysts are expecting the July WASDE report to show a slight increase in 2023-24ending stocks. For the 2024-25 marketing year, analysts are ex