Market Summary
1. U.S. Corn Production Outlook
- Weather: Moderate temperatures and widespread rainfall in primary corn growing regions.
- Yield Expectations: Analysts predict a national corn yield of 179.7 bushels/acre, slightly below the USDA's trendline yield of 181 bushels/acre.
- Stocks: Analysts estimate 2023-24 ending stocks at 2.049 billion bushels, with a slight increase expected in the July WASDE report.
- 2024-25 Marketing Year: Corn ending stocks expected between 2.174-2.454 billion bushels, higher than USDA's June estimate.
2. Soybean Production Outlook
- Yield Expectations: Analysts predict a soybean production of 4.42 billion bushels.
- Stocks: Estimated ending stocks for 2023-24 range from 0.329-0.390 billion bushels, with an average of 0.355 billion bushels.
- 2024-25 Marketing Year: Soybean ending stocks expected between 0.350 – 0.527 billion bushels.
3. South American Production
- Corn: Argentina production expected at 51.07 MMT, Brazil at 121.3 MMT.
- Soybean: Argentina production expected at 49.95 MMT, Brazil at 151.75 MMT.
4. CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified in the provided text.
5. Crop Progress and Conditions
- Corn Silking: 24% of corn is silking, ahead of last year and the 5-year average.
- Sorghum Heading: 23% heading, slightly behind last year and the 5-year average.
- Barley Heading: 56% heading, even with last year and slightly behind the 5-year average.
- Soybean Blooming: 34% blooming, ahead of the 5-year average.
6. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- Prices: Average $156 per short ton, down from the previous week and month.
- Production: U.S. ethanol production averaged 1,064 thousand barrels per day.
7. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Hurricane Beryl: Impacted ports from Brownsville to Houston, with some ports without power.
- Panama Canal: Water levels improving, with plans for a new water reservoir.
- Security Issues: Houthi's terrorist organization attacked the m/v Maersk Sentosa, vessel owners and operators avoiding the Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula.
- Baltic Dry Index: Down 6% for the week, with Panamax and Supramax sectors firming.
8. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn: Net sales up 51% from the previous week, exports down 2% from the previous week.
- Barley: No net sales reported, exports to South Korea.
- Sorghum: Net sales down from the previous week, exports up 6% from the previous week, primarily to China.
