市场展望——2024年7月5日

Market Perspectives July 5, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA’s grain stocks and planted acreage reports that were released on June 28th both were considerednegative for corn as there was more corn on hand than expected and corn acreage was higher thanexpected given some of the planting problems that occurred this spring. Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2024, totaled 4.99 billion bushels, up 21.7 percent from June 1,2023, and the largest since June 2020. Of the total stocks, 3.026 billion bushels are stored on farms, up36.5 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.967 billion bushels, are up 4.3 percent from a yearago. The March - May 2024 indicated disappearance is 3.36 billion bushels, compared with 3.29 billionbushels during the same period last year. The implied March-May feed and residual disappearance is916 million bushels, 125 million bushels below expectations. But the implied feed and residualdisappearance for the September-May period is up 5% from last year. The most recent WASDE reporthas 2023/24 feed and residual, up 5% from the previous year so the current usage levels reported byUSDA are in alignment with the stocks number. Of the major corn producing states, on-farm stocks areup the greatest in Illinois (+71.2%) and up the least in Wisconsin (+4.8%). Off-farm corn stocks are up thegreatest in Illinois (+23.1%) and down the most in Iowa (-15.5%). For total corn grain stocks, the statewith the highest percentage increase in total stocks was Illinois (+43.6%) followed closely by Missouri(+40%). The state with the lowest percentage gain in corn stocks was Wisconsin (+3.2%) followed closelyby Nebraska (+5.3%). The USDA planted acreage report surprised the market with an increase in corn planted acres despitethe problems getting the crop planted, especially in the eastern side of the Cornbelt. USDA reportedthat farmers planted 91.5 million acres of corn, down 3.6% from a year ago, but 1.6% greater than thecorn acreage in the March planting intentions report. Acreage in Iowa was 2.3% higher than anticipatedin March, acres in Minnesota were 2.5% higher than intentions, Nebraska up 2.5%, and Kansas 10.5%higher than March intentions. Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Kentucky were unchanged from Marchintentions. For the U.S., the June corn crop acreage estimate has been between 97% and 101% of finalacreage. In 2023, the June corn crop acreage was 99% of the final acreage. Corn acreage harvested forgrain in the U.S. averages 90% of the June corn acreage number with the recent low being 89%. Most ofthe difference between planted corn acres and harvested corn acres is