市场展望——2024年9月5日

Market Perspectives September 5, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Private firms are beginning to release their estimates of the U.S. corn crop ahead of the next USDAWASDE report that will be released next week. So far, the new estimates are all slightly below USDA’sAugust estimate of 183.1 bushels per acre and production of 15.147 billion bushels. The average ofthree estimates released this week is 15.084 billion bushels which would be 62 million bushels less thanUSDA’s August estimate. Crop condition ratings for the U.S. corn crop have held relatively stable since the August WASDE. OnAugust 12th, corn was rated 67% Good/Excellent. It is now rated 65% Good/Excellent. Crop conditionratings often drift lower even when the overall conditions are good as the crop moves toward maturity.Some localized areas of dryness are reappearing, especially in the Eastern cornbelt, in the Delta and theSouthern Plains. The heart of the cornbelt remains blessed with relatively good conditions for final earfill for corn and pod fill for soybeans. China’s investigation into canola shipments from Canada to China appears to be part of China’s responseto the imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. These actions led toovernight selling on the Chicago futures markets on Tuesday night, but these worries were short lived,and the market began focusing on other issues once the daytime session on Wednesday got underway.Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses to a third straight session on Wednesday, tracking a drop inprices of rival vegetable oils and a decline in India's palm oil imports. Recent strength in the ringgit hasmade palm oil less competitive and with other vegetable oils and weakness in crude oil futures has nothelped oils that are now used for biofuels. Malaysia's palm oil inventories are expected to have climbedto their highest levels in six months at the end of August due to lackluster export demand. Oil prices fellslightly on Wednesday, hovering at their lowest levels since December after plunging more than 4% theprevious day on signs of a weak global economy, perceived weakening of oil demand, and expectationsof an end to a dispute halting Libyan oil exports. Investors have become confident the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks will soon cut interestrates to stimulate consumer and business spending but that has not dispelled concerns about weak oildemand growth. Instead, forecasts of steep rate cuts over the rest of 2024 and through 2025 have beenseen as confirming fears that the major economies are set to slow significantly, keeping demand growthmoderate.