市场展望——2024年12月5日

Market Perspectives December 5, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 3CBOT March 2025 Corn Futures ..................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook A spokesman for the U.S. Treasury Department told news reporters that the Biden administration is setto finalize guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit before President Biden leaves office onJanuary 20, 2025, so that eligible producers will be able to claim the credit for 2025 production. The 45Ztax credits provide support for biofuels production, especially renewable diesel, biodiesel, andsustainable aviation fuels (SAF). This should be supportive to soybean crush for soyoil and ethanolproduction, especially from lower-carbon feedstocks such as corn grown with sustainable practices.Ethanol producers, in particular, are hoping SAF will provide market growth for ethanol production amidstagnant demand for corn-based ethanol as a gasoline additive. The Department of Agriculture isexpected to issue some guidance on what climate smart farming techniques may be used to access thecredit, but other key items such as life cycle analysis, will remain unfinished and leave the industrywithout a blueprint to access the credits, the sources said. Job growth in the U.S. is slowing. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December jobs reporton Friday, December 6thwith data for November. Ahead of the government’s statistics, ADP released itsprivate payroll data which shows that private businesses added 146,000 jobs to payrolls in November,which was the lowest in 3 months and follows a downward revision in October’s data to 184,000 jobsadded. The jobs data has been in a significant downtrend since hitting highs early in 2022. Despite thedowntrend in new jobs numbers, the US economy is still growing. The latest data shows US grossdomestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, but that wasdown from the second quarter growth rate of 3.0%. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflectedincreases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, and business investment. In contrast to the general economy in the U.S., which is growing, net farm income in the U.S. has fallensharply since 2022. The most recent estimate of U.S. net farm income is $140.7 billion which is down$52.7 billion compared to 2022, or a decline of 27%. While USDA-ERS claims that financial pressures aremodest, the outlook for net farm income is grim amid negative production margins for 2025 crops. It islikely that bankers may pressure farmers into selling more of their stored 2024 crop supply beforerenewing operational loans for 2025 in the coming months. The economic research division of USD