市场展望——2024年7月25日

Market Perspectives July 25, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Daily changes in the weather forecast are likely to be the largest drivers of the corn and soybeanmarkets over the next couple of weeks. Managed money is holding record short corn and soybeanpositions betting on record crop yields for both corn and soybeans in the U.S. this year and, at least sofar, betting that demand increases are still “off in the future.” So far this year, that has been a winningposition as corn has been in an extended downtrend since July 2023. December corn futures were above$5 per bushel when 2024 began and this week hit new lows just cents above $4 per bushel. The weather models agree on the forecast for the next two weeks with warm to hot temperatures withbelow normal rainfall for the Plains, the Canadian Prairies, and the western portions of the Cornbelt. Thecoming heat will hasten crop maturity and shorten the time for ear fill. This usually results in lower testweight on the corn and a reduction in yield compared to what might occur if temperatures remainedconducive to optimal crop development. In some areas with relatively low soil moisture, crop stress islikely to be seen very quickly. The jet stream is displaced northward into Canada in the week 2 forecast with increasing amplitude ofthe west-central U.S. high pressure ridge. This suggests that the best chances of rain will be late nextweek as some Ridge-riding storm systems drop rain in the eastern Midwest, Tennessee Valey, and thegulf states, areas that already received quite a bit of rain when Hurricane Beryl moved through thoseareas. The southeastern U.S. could see regular daily rain with 10-day totals of 2 to 6 inches of rain andlocalized flooding. Western Cornbelt and Plains will see high temperatures in the upper 80s into the mid to upper 90s byFriday and will hold at these elevated levels throughout next week. The heat becomes oppressive withhighs pushing into the lower 100s across the Plains and western Cornbelt in the 10–15-day period. Thehigh-pressure ridge holds across the north-central U.S. into at least August 8th. This hot/dry weatherpattern will be most adverse to Plains and western Cornbelt crops that are pollinating and in thereproduction stage. The upcoming weather could shake the market into sharp shortcovering rallies asstress becomes more apparent. Weather in Ukraine continues to feature limited rainfall and continued stress on the corn crop. Someprivate estimates of the 2024 Ukrainian corn crop have been cut recently by 5 million metric tons to24.1 mmt. The Ukrainian ag ministry still expects output of 28.5 mmt down from a