市场展望——2024年7月18日

Market Perspectives July 18, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA’s July WASDE update surprised the market with stronger domestic feed demand and increasedcorn export demand in the 2023/24 marketing year. USDA increased both of these use categories by 75million bushels, but raised imports by 5 million bushels, with the results being a 145 million bushel dropin 2023/24 ending stocks. Currently, U.S. export sales to date were only 15 million bushels from USDA’ssales expectations for the year and with strong Mexican corn train demand continuing, this likelyprompted the increase in the export estimates. On the domestic demand front, U.S. cattle on feednumbers and substantial hog feeding numbers are being supportive to corn basis levels in the westerncornbelt and indicate that feed usage is increasing. The smaller U.S. carryover stocks mostly offset the increase in 2024/25 production as USDA kept the 181bu/acre trendline yield and upped the harvested acres with the input from the June planted acreagereport. (Note: with significant flooding in parts of southeastern South Dakota, northwest Iowa, southernMinnesota, and in both the Mississippi and Missouri River basins, it is likely that harvested acreage willbe reduced by several million acres in either the September or October WASDE reports.) New crop corn demand (2024/25 marketing year) was increased by USDA. They added 75 million in feeddemand and 25 million in export demand. Instead of the trade’s expected 210 million bushel increase in2024/25 ending stocks, ending stocks for 2024/25 dropped by 5 million bushels to 2.097 billion bushels. The stronger old-crop demand outlook for U.S. corn crop comes at the same time as USDA slicedanother 1 mmt from Argentina’s corn crop. This reduced the World Board’s 2023/24 world stocks by3.26 mmt for October 2024. The World Board only sliced 5 million bushels from beans’ old-crop imports and dipped its 2024 U.S.soybean output by 15 million bushels. These were the only two changes in soybeans’ old & new cropbalance sheets. Overall, this reduced new-crop soybeans stocks by 20 million to 435 million bushels, butthis carryover outlook remains large versus recent years. On the world level, the USDA sliced 500,000metric tons from Argentina’s soybean crop to 49.5 mmt, but they left their Brazilian output unchangedat 153 mmt despite the heavy flooding that occurred in RGDS early this year. Prices for soybeans andsoybean meal were lower in response to the report and continued to drop in the following days. Brazil’s Conab raised the 2ndcrop corn output by 1.8 mmt this month bumping up their overall outputidea to 11