市场展望——2024年4月25日

Market Perspectives April 25, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook In the most recent WASDE report, global coarse grain production for 2023/24 was lowered 2.7 milliontons lower to 1,507.4 million. The most recent changes in world coarse grain outlook are for reducedproduction, larger trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Corn production outside theU.S. is forecast lower with declines for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Venezuela, and Russia that arepartly offset by increases for Argentina and Syria. South African corn production is down reflecting loweryield prospects. Corn production in Mexico is cut based on expectations of lower winter corn area.Coarse grains production in Ukraine and Russia are reduced based on reported harvest results to date.Argentina is raised based on higher expected area. Foreign barley production is down, with reductionsfor Iraq and Syria that are partly offset by an increase for Australia. Major global trade changes include higher corn exports for Ukraine and Argentina but reductions forSouth Africa and India. Corn imports are lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and South Korea butraised for Mexico, Venezuela, and Indonesia. Barley exports are raised for Australia. Corn ending stocksoutside the U.S. are lower, mostly reflecting a decline for Ukraine that is partly offset by an increase forBrazil. Global corn ending stocks, at 319.6 million tons, are down 2.4 million. With global coarse grain stocks declining, more attention is being paid to the crop prospects for thecrops already planted in the southern hemisphere and the crop that is currently being planted in thenorthern hemisphere. Eastern Europe and the Black Sea area weather are in the spotlight as wheatsupplies are getting tighter in many areas and dryness persists in the major growing areas of EasternEurope and southwestern Russia. The EU and GFA weather models both agree that rainfall will staynorth and west of the major wheat producing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia at least throughMay 7th. Late winter/early spring of 2020 saw similar weather patterns and winter wheat yields thatwere stressed in April were salvaged by timely rains in May and June. Soil moisture conditions in thearea are depleted but there is still time for improvement but there is little room for warmth/dryness tobe extended beyond early May and still see good yields. In the Midwestern U.S., rainfall patterns fall in line with a forecast of a drier, warm summer. By the endof the first week in May, the spring season is likely to have a signature of precipitation very similar tothose of past years in which