石油市场月报比较分析

March2025 Summary and Oil Market Context DemandOPEChas maintaineditsglobaloildemandgrowthforecastfor2025atapproximately1.4mb/dforthefourthconsecutivemonth.For2026,globaldemandisprojectedtocontinueatthesamepace,withaforecastedglobaldemandgrowthof1.4mb/d.TheOECDseesdemandincreasingby0.1mb/dandnon-OECDbyapproximately1.3mb/dinboth2025and2026. TheEIAhasreviseditsglobaloildemandgrowthforecastdownwardby0.1mb/dto1.3mb/dy/yfor2025,comparedtolastmonth'sassessment.For2026,theforecastindicatesanincreaseinglobaldemandgrowthby0.1mb/dto1.2mb/dy/y,drivenbyrisingdemandfromnon-OECDAsia.TransportationdemandinIndiaisexpectedtoleadthegrowthinliquidfuelsconsumption,withanincreaseof0.3mb/dinboth2025and2026.China'sliquidfuelsdemandgrowthisforecasttorisebyapproximately0.3mb/din2025and0.2mb/din2026. TheIEAhasadjusteditsglobaloildemandgrowthforecastdownwardby0.1mb/dto1.0mb/dy/yfor2025,anincreasefrom830kb/din2024.Around60%ofthisyear'sgrowthwillbedrivenbyChinesepetrochemicalfeedstocks.OECDdemandgrowthseesadeclineof0.1mb/dy/y,whilenon-OECDdemandgrowthincreasesby1.1mb/dy/y. SupplyOPEChas maintaineditsforecastfornon-DoCliquidsproductionandDoCNGLsgrowth,keepingitunchangedatapproximately1.1mb/dyear-on-yearforboth2025and2026.ThisgrowthisprimarilydrivenbytheUnitedStates,Brazil,andCanadainbothyears.Theaveragenon-DoCliquidssupplyandDoCNGLsareprojectedtobearound62.6mb/din2025andapproximately63.7mb/din2026. TheEIAhasmaintaineditsforecastfornon-OPECsupplygrowthunchangedat1.5mb/dy/yfor2025relativetolastmonth'sassessment,whileincreasingthe2026forecastgrowthby0.1mb/dto1.4mb/dy/y.TheEIAhasreviseddowntheforecastgrowthofnon-DoCsupplyby0.1mb/dto1.6mb/dy/y.For2026,thegrowthforecastofnon-DoCsupplywillincreasebymorethan0.1mb/dto1.2mb/dy/y.ThegrowthfromcountriesoutsideOPEC+willdriveproductiongrowth,mainlyfromtheUS,Canada,Brazil,andGuyana.TheUShasmaintaineditscrudeproductionforecastat13.6mb/dfor2025whileincreasingitsproductionforecastby0.1mb/dto13.8mb/dfor2026,relativetolastmonth'sestimates. TheIEA'snon-DoCliquidsupplygrowthforecastfor2025seesanincreaseof0.1mb/dto1.5mb/dy/y,relativetolastmonth'sassessment.Thenon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsforecastfromtheIEAalsoshowsanincreaseof0.1mb/dto1.6mb/dy/y. ThedivergenceacrossthethreeagenciesforNon-DocsupplyandDoCNGLsisapproximately0.5mb/dy/y. 2024 Outlook Comparison Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions •The IEA lowered its global demand growth forecasts slightly from around 0.9 mb/d last month to 0.8 mb/d year•The EIA has revised its growth estimates for global demand upward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d y/y. -over-year. Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts •Global demand growth estimates from the IEA declined slightly to about 0.83 million barrels per day year-over-year. •The EIA has adjusted its growth estimates for OECD demand upward by more than 50 kb/d. Non-OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2024 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2024 Forecasts y/y growth in million barrels per day Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts DoCsupply growth for EIA and OPEC shows a moderate declining pattern. The divergence between the EIA and the IEA in non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 0.3 mb/d. Non-DoCSupplyGrowthEvolution of 2024 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day 2025 Outlook Comparison Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions •OPEC has maintained its projection for global oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.4 mb/d y/y and expects the averageglobal demand to be about 105.2 mb/d. •Global demand growth forecasts from the EIA decline by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y, driven by a decline from OECDdemand. Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts •OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at approximately 1.4 mb/d y/y for fourth consecutive months.•Non-OECD demand growth forecasts from the EIA were kept unchanged. OECD demand growth declined by around 0.1 mb/d. Non-OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Global Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day OPEC forecasts total global demand growth still to be ~0.4 mb/dhigher than the IEA’s forecast 2025 Demand Growth Forecasts by Regiony/y growth in million barrels perday Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts •OPEC has maintained its non-DoCliquids supply growth at approximately 1.0 mb/d y/y. •Non-Doc supply growth forecasts from the EIA have declined for the second consecutive month. USSupplyGrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecasts Non-OPECSupplyGrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Non-DoCSupplyGrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day OPEC projects US supply growth to make up around half of thetotal non-DoCsupply growth 2025 Supply Growth Forecasts by Regiony/y growth in million barrels perday The difference between OPEC's 'call onDoC