2025年全球经济展望报告

JANUARY 2025 GlobalEconomicProspects JANUARY 2025 GlobalEconomicProspects © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 428 27 26 25 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth.The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptanceof such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed bythose authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy,distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2025.Global Economic Prospects, January 2025.Washington, DC:World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2147-9. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The WorldBank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the soleresponsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained inthe work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solelywith you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is neededfor that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limitedto, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H StreetNW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISSN: 1014-8906ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-2147-9ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-2194-3DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2147-9 Cover design: Bill Pragluski (Critical Stages) The Library of Congress Control Number has been requested. The cutoff date for the data used in the report was December 20, 2024. Summary of Contents Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................................. xiiiForeword .............................................................................................................................................xvExecutive Summary .......................................................................................................................... xviiAbbreviations .....................................................................................................................................xix Chapter 1Chapter 2Chapter 3Chapter 4Global Outlook........................................................................................................1Box 1.1Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks ................................................... 19Box 1.2Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook......................... 25Regional Outlooks .................................................................................................51East Asia and Pacific ............................................................................................... 53Europe and Central Asi