2025年贸易和发展展望：压力之下——不确定性重塑全球经济前景

Trade anddevelopmentforesights 2025 Under pressure:Uncertainty reshapesglobal economicprospects Trade and development foresights 2025Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsTrade and development foresights 2025Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospects The analysis presented in this report is consistent with information and dataavailable as at 10 April 2025. InquiriesaboutthecontentofthispublicationshouldbesentbyemailtotheMacroeconomicandDevelopmentPoliciesBranch,DivisiononGlobalizationandDevelopmentStrategies,UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD);e-mail:unctad-gds_mdpb@unctad.org. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in thiswork do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of theUnited Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area orof its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of theUnited Nations. This document has not been formally edited. Contents Explanatory notes................................................................................vKey takeaways....................................................................................vi A.Global economic context: Uncertaintydrives lower growth expectations...............................11.The spectre of low growth..........................................12.Uncertainty and financial turbulence..........................43.Global macroeconomic outlook...............................11 B.International markets.................................................19 1. Dynamism of merchandise tradefades away...............................................................192. Capital flows to developing countries:Compound risks.......................................................233. Commodity markets not immuneto global uncertainty................................................28 C.Regional developments.............................................31 References........................................................................................34 About UNCTAD UNCTAD is the leading institution within the United Nations that deals with tradeand development. It is part of the United Nations Secretariat and has a membershipof 195 countries, one of the largest in the United Nations system. UNCTAD supports developing countries to access the benefits of a globalizedeconomy more fairly and effectively by providing economic and trade analysis,facilitating consensus-building and offering technical assistance to help developingcountriesusetrade,investment,financeandtechnologyforinclusiveandsustainable development. List of boxes, figures and tables Box 1The macroeconomic effects of tariffs........................................27Figure 1The world economy is entering into a recessionary phase.........2Figure 2Concerns over economic policy shifts at their highestin this century.............................................................................2Figure 3The ‘fear’ index: Investors’ concerns about economicperformance...............................................................................4Figure 4Volatile fortunes: Financial turbulence reflects growinganxiety over the global economy................................................5Figure 5Rising geoeconomic uncertainty has propelled goldto new highs...............................................................................6Figure 6Long-term interest rates have been rising despitemonetary loosening....................................................................7Figure 7Uncertainty in investors’ expectations is puttingupward pressure on interest rates..............................................8Figure 8Centres of gravity in merchandise trade partnerships..............10Figure 9Global trade trends: South–South trade has been increasing...10Figure 10Intra-Asian trade has expanded rapidlyin the last three decades...........................................................11Figure 11Inflation expectations on the rise again....................................12Figure 12Fiscal tightening ongoing in most G20 countries......................14Figure 13Military spending in high-income countriesset to return to pre-1990 highs?...............................................18Figure 14Trade policy uncertainty at historical highs...............................20Figure 15Decreasing container freight rates point toa slowdown in merchandise trade............................................21Figure 16Real-time estimates of world merchandise tradehave been gradually revised downward....................................21Figure 17The expansion of commercial serviceshas remained firm so far...........................................................22Figure 18Development financing was already strained beforethe 2025 cuts were announced.......................