2025年贸易和发展报告：濒临危机——贸易、金融与全球经济重塑

On the brinkTrade, finance and the reshapingof the global economy Trade andDevelopmentReport2025 On the brinkTrade, finance and the reshapingof the global economy Requests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the CopyrightClearance Center at copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licences, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: United Nations Publications405 East 42nd StreetNew York, New York 10017United States of AmericaEmail:publications@un.orgWebsite:https://shop.un.org The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not implythe expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legalstatus of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation ofits frontiers or boundaries. Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. This publication has been edited externally. Acknowledgements TheTrade and Development Report 2025of the United Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopment (UNCTAD) was prepared by a report team led by Anastasia Nesvetailova, ofthe Division on Globalization and Development Strategies. Team members included DianaBarrowclough, Lyubov Chumakova, Cambiz Daneshvar, Pierre Kohler, Nicolas Maystre, IgorPaunovic, Katie Swan-Nelson, Dawei Wang and Xinyi Wei. Special thanks are extended toUNCTAD interns Selma Azladji, Lisa Guarnera, Jie Ouyang and Zihang Wang for their valuablesupport and inputs. The report benefited further from inputs and feedback provided by colleagues of the Division onGlobalization and Development Strategies, the Division on International Trade and Commodities,the Division on Technology and Logistics and the Division on Investment and Enterprise. Materialsand comments were also received from the Statistics Service and the Innovation and ResearchCoordination Unit of UNCTAD. Colleagues, including Anida Yupari Aguado and Andrés MiguelRondón Anzola, from the Office of the Secretary-General of UNCTAD contributed valuablefeedback and comments. UNCTAD gratefully acknowledges the research inputs and comments of external contributorsand reviewers, including Stefan Avdjiev, Dirk Bezemer, Bruno Bonizzi, Giselle Datz, DanielHaberly, Thomas Goda, Anmol Grewal, Deniz Igan, Alexey Ivanov, Juvaria Jafri, Daria Kotova,Photis Lysandrou, Jörg Dieter Mayer, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Laurissa Mühlich, Vahini Naidu,Tsvetelina Nenova, Richard Phillips, Herman Mark Schwartz, Ricardo Soares de Oliveira andJan Toporowski. The manuscript was edited by Gretchen Luchsinger. Overall production at UNCTAD was overseenby Maritza Ascencios of the Intergovernmental Outreach and Support Service. Cover designand desktop publishing were undertaken by David Bustamante, Nadège Hadjémian and MagaliStuder, under the coordination of the UNCTAD Communication and External Relations team ledby Amalia Navarro. Ivonne Paredes-Ayma and Karen Mulweye provided administrative support. Table of contents Acknowledgements..........................................................................................iiiForeword...........................................................................................................xAbbreviations...................................................................................................xiiExplanatory notes...........................................................................................xiii Chapter ICurrent trends and challenges in the global economy.....................1 Policy takeaways.....................................................................................................3 A.Global economic outlook..................................................................................4 1. Introduction....................................................................................................................42. From subdued to faltering global growth........................................................................43. A generalized downturn affects everyone.......................................................................94. Diverging monetary policy paths add to volatility in international markets......................125. International credit conditions remain tight....................................................................136. Policy responses..........................................................................................................15 B.Regional trends................................................................................................16 The Americas................................................................................................................16European Union............................................................................................................17United Kingdom.........................................................................................