2025年长期展望：全球经济在债务和关税压力下艰难前行，美国资产不再独领风骚，创收资产迎来良机，私募资产持续吸引，股票投资进入赢家通吃时代

1—A global economy that will struggleto outrun debt and tariffs2—USassets are exceptional no more3—Stars align for income-generating assets4—The enduring appeal of private assets5—Equity investing in a “winner-takes-all” world Authors LUca PaoLiniChief Strategist arUn SaiSenior Multi Asset Strategist aLexia JimenezMulti Asset Strategist ShanieLramJeeCo-Head Multi Asset London Sabrina KhannicheSenior Economist OverviewThe Great Convergence The world is splintering. In a reversal of the rules-basedeconomic order that developed in the decades after the BerlinWall came down, a new multi-polar global structure is fallinginto place. The irony is that this political fragmentation isleading to a convergence in both macroeconomic trends andasset class returns – at least for major developed markets. Theexception – and there is always an exception – is the emergingworld. Developing nations will prove a source of superiorgrowth and higher returns. Secular trendS 05A global economy that will struggleto outrun debt and tariffs20uS assets are exceptional no more33Stars align for income-generatingassets43The enduring appealof private assets51Equity investing ina “winner-takes-all” world The Great Convergence is the third great post-Soviet eco-nomic and geopolitical era. The first was the Great Modera-tion, a time of macroeconomic stability that emerged fromthe end of the Cold War and the rise of China and the Internet.That was followed by the Age of Uncertainty, triggered by theglobal financial crisis and its aftershocks, the Covid-19 pan-demic and the Ukraine war all of which underpinned by theUS’s “exceptionalism”. In this new period, economic growth rates will converge, Five-year aSSet claSSreturn projectionS 62A new diversified portfoliofor a new age64Equities: the great convergence67Bonds: the bear market ends70Currencies: doubling downon the dollar72Alternatives: private assetsto outperform77Appendix economic imbalances will start to be addressed and a neweconomic world order will slowly develop. This new order willtake shape around regional trade blocks and economic na-tionalism and will be far lessUS-centric. In some cases, con-vergence will mean a pick-up in growth. European economieswill, for instance, benefit from large fiscal programmes andderegulation. By contrast, the USeconomy will slow. As a con-sequence, this will spell the end ofUSequity market outper-formance. Valuations across asset classes have already started to con-verge and many are now becoming broadly aligned with theirfundamental anchors. In theUS, for example, the dividendyield, real bond yields, real trendGDP and trend inflationhave all drawn towards 2%. The last time we saw a similar con-vergence was in the early 1990s, when these metrics were allclose to 3%. There are two main conclusions to draw from this trend.First, if initial valuations are in line with fundamentals, futurereturns for most mainstream asset classes will be low – onlyslightly above inflation. Second, if these developments aretrue for most major markets, then the dispersion of returnsfrom region to region will be marginal in local currency terms. Secular trendS 05A global economy that will struggleto outrun debt and tariffs20uS assets are exceptional no more33Stars align for income-generatingassets43The enduring appealof private assets51Equity investing ina “winner-takes-all” world All this means that: • A passive equity portfolio split equally between equitiesand bonds will only deliver a modest nominal annual re-turn of 4.5%, or around 2% after inflation, roughly half thevery long run average.• Investors seeking higher returns, or at least returns thatare in line with historical averages, will need to overhaultheir asset and regional allocations.•They will first need to cut their exposure to USequities.And because theUSmakes up some 65% of the globalmarket, that will involve allocating more to non-USstocks.•Investors should also lift their allocation to fixed income,not least to emerging market bonds and credit.• And they need to take a more actively managedapproach to currency exposure, especially since we expecttheUS dollar to depreciate 10-15% over the next five years.• Investors should stick with alternatives, even if theirrecent performance has been disappointing. These assetswill continue to offer diversification and inflation protec-tion. Five-year aSSet claSSreturn projectionS 62A new diversified portfoliofor a new age64Equities: the great convergence67Bonds: the bear market ends70Currencies: doubling downon the dollar72Alternatives: private assetsto outperform77Appendix There are significant risks within this new global order.Positive potential shocks include the full convertibility of therenminbi as well as a permanent and credible move towardseuro zone fiscal union and debt mutualisation. On the down-side, though, theUSFederal Reserve could lose its independ-ence, by stealth or by legislative action. In an extreme, yetplausible scenario,