南华期货2024年二季度铝产业展望：供给释放有限，需求增长可期

6LME 18500/-20500/ 20111290 Z0019898myw@nawaa.com 3100/-3550/ 0571-87839265 1. 2024 3 125 0.55% 1 1.2 2324 231270%70% 4 180 SHFE SMM 2. 2.1 2024 24 1-22447.943.74%1817.616%548.6528%80%1924232423 SMM SMM SMM 24232362023231124SMM1-2850.0616%65.8232%221.2933%3 SMM SMM 2.2 2024SMM1-213004.1%11.8921.881.93 SMM 1 212 24 SMM 231-21-264.3565%2024Kwinana175/ SMM 24 2.3 2423SMM24195/92.9%4.8pct1-2689.35.9% 5050-60SMM8052322 18 2424 SMM 2000/2416900/14900/18000/ 24IAI1-2478.43%7%7%6%8%24 IAI 232424 1-247.19215%59%2412 SMM SMM 3. 3.1 24 PMI1-21PMI49.2249.12023502 PMI49PMI49.81-212151.349.8--2.3-0.8-0.41.1 PMI50 SMM 3.1.1 243059.0%30.5%21.12%23243 WIND WIND 2-324212221222021198,895.0511.38%2022120,587.0739.37%242411-20%2410% 3.1.2 20241-216.92%291512.8%137418.5%162234.8%4274.5%253320241-238.6%6.322024 2027202330% 3.1.3 30%2495%32018102018-20202018202095%5%5%2424210-230GW240-260GW300GW 3SMM354GW77%57GW47%3ALMM4 SMM 1-22425%2316% 3.1.4 3.1.5 A50%B26%A+B7-8A2319.8%26.4%B25.3%35.2%10-2010-2020-3010-1530-405-30 A10-2020232024 2024 3.2 3.2.16 321FOMC5.25%-5.5%600/350/MBS23 19124100BP25BP/49243522123CME 932122433FOMC114332 2024GDP2.1%121.4%2526GDP24PCE2.6%2.4% 252624 242460-75BP 3.2.2 GDPGDPGDP 25 Wind 3.2.3 SMM 4. 4.1 4.2 / 136310008400 8888 910www.nanhua.net603093