南华期货2024年二季度工业硅展望：至暗时刻，先破后立

10500-13500/ 20111290 Z0019898myw@nawaa.com 0571-87839265 目录.................................................................................................................................2 2.1供应：北增南减，整体回升.............................................................................52.2成本：预期下行，关注川滇.............................................................................72.3库存：仓单压力难降，厂内库存走高...............................................................9 3.需求：踽踽独行，姗姗来迟...................................................................................11 3.1多晶硅：终端预期提升，上游仍陷泥潭.........................................................113.2有机硅：利润改善，增长受限........................................................................133.3铝合金：汽车带动，稳健增长........................................................................16 4.总结.......................................................................................................................20 图1.1：工业硅期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................4图2.1：工业硅月度产量（万吨）....................................................................................5图2.2：新疆月度产量（万吨）........................................................................................5图2.3：内蒙古月度产量（万吨）....................................................................................5图2.4：甘肃月度产量（万吨）........................................................................................5图2.5：云南月度产量（万吨）........................................................................................5图2.6：四川月度产量（万吨）........................................................................................5图2.7：云南工业硅开工率（%）.....................................................................................6图2.8：四川工业硅开工率（%）.....................................................................................6图2.9：云南工业硅开工率与利润比较.............................................................................6图2.10：四川工业硅开工率与利润比较...........................................................................6图2.11：2024年工业硅新投产能E（万吨）...................................................................7图2.12：全国平均553成本（元/吨）.............................................................................7图2.13：全国平均421成本（元/吨）.............................................................................7图2.14：硅石均价（元/吨）............................................................................................8图2.15：石油焦均价（元/吨）........................................................................................8图2.16：精煤均价（元/吨）............................................................................................8图2.17：电极均价（元/吨）............................................................................................8图2.18：工业硅产能成本图.............................................................................................8图2.19：新疆地区成本运行情况（元/吨）......................................................................8图2.20：川滇现金成本运行情况（元/吨）......................................................................9图2.21：川滇折盘面成本运行情况（元/吨）...................................................................9图2.22：百川总库存+交易所仓单（吨）.........................................................................9图2.23：仓单数量（万吨）.............................................................................................9图2.24：工业硅厂内库存（吨）......................................................................................9图2.25：云南样本厂内库存（吨）..................................................................................9图2.26：四川样本厂内库存（吨）................................................................................10图2.27：四川样本厂内库存（吨）................................................................................10图3.1：光伏产业链........................................................................................................11图3.2：组件产量（GW）..............................................................................................12图3.3：电池片产量（GW）..........................................................................................12图3.4：电源工程投资完成额（亿元）...........................................................................12图3.5：国内组新增光伏装机（GW）............................................................................12图3.6：组件出口（GW）..............................................................................................12图3.7：电池片出口（GW）..........................................................................................12图3.8：硅片出口（GW）..............................................................................................13图3.9：光伏产业链上游供给对比..................................................................................13图3.10：多晶硅成本利润（元/吨）...............................................................................13图3.11：多晶硅库存（吨）...........................................................................................13图3.12：2024年多晶硅投产预期E（万吨）......................................................