亚洲债券供需监测

August2026 Vaninder Singhvaninder.singh@db.com Joey Chungjoey.chung@db.com Chen Kanchen.kan@db.com BryantXubryant.xu@db.com Sameer Goelsameer.goel@db.com Perry Kojodjojoperry.kojodjojo@db.com keeping IndoGBs, KTBs and IGBs on watch. However, we would not engage in MGS just yet, as we expect further bear-steepening toplayout. Two themes come out prominently in our latest update of the demand-supply mapping for the region; (1) Demandis tentatively returning, albeit not yet uniformly across the curve. - Front-end demand starting to improve in the high-yielders; (1) IGBs from the flush liquidity and banks needing a place thepark the deposits; and (2) RPGBs from the deceleration in loan growth.- Meanwhile, long-end demand is starting to improve in IndoGBs (from BI bill & bond buying resuming over the last twoweeks), KTBs (helped by fiscal views changing), MGS (from EPF support), ThaiGBs (as financial corporation start to engageagain the market).- Interestingly, cGBs are seeing strong demand across the curve - unsurprising against a weakening macro backdrop.- Indexed foreign flows are the key exception, though, as these have become less supportive for the region, on the margin.India's Bloomberg Global Aggregate inclusion has been delayed once again, while Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia haverecordedsomeof the largest declines inGBl-EMbenchmark weight among indexconstituents (see Bond Brief3) (2) Rather than boosting H2 supply - following run-rate misses in H1 - debt management offices are choosing to rely onalternative funding instead. 1. More bills and external financing in Indonesia, prompting us to trim our supply estimate by 10%2. More external issuance in the Philippines.3.Betterrevenueperformance inKorea, resultingin athird consecutive monthof slowissuance4. Heavier reliance on PNs in Thailand with ThaiGB supply already reduced by 3% a few weeks back.5. More use of private placements in Malaysia. subdued.Meanwhile,demand stayed robust,supportedby non-bankfinancial institutionsandforeigners.ThoughthePolitburo'srecent call for faster issuance suggests supply will pick up further in coming months, we expect the soft macro backdrop tosustain demand and more than offset additional supply. Consequently, we recommend entering a long 3Y CGB position. foreign demand remains solid following the expansion of the FAR-eligible bond universe. However, slower lifer premium growthand heavy 15Y+ SDLissuance should keep the back-end under pressure. - IndoGB. BI's likely resumption of bond buying means the curve should remain flat. Meanwhile, we have revised down our 2026 -KTB.KTBsupplycontinuestoslowamidback-endyieldpressureandimprovingfiscalrevenues.TheFY2o27budgetproposaldue in August, should provide a clearer indication of whether the MoEF ultimately plans to undershoot its annual issuance target.Meanwhile,demandhas improvedas concerns overadditional bondissuancehaveeased. MGs/MGll. Supply has come into focus ahead of the October Budget announcement, with recent state election resultsincreasing the risk of a large 2027 deficit. Demand dynamics are also likely to turn less supportive in most segments apart fromEPF. - sGs. Demand-supply dynamics should improve over the remainder of the year. Issuance is already 85% complete as of end-Julywhile SGS has become more attractive vs UsTs on a CcS-hedged basis, supporting stronger demand from lifers. -RPGB.Favorablefront-end demand dynamics,signsthatinflationhaspeaked,amidst still-deceleratinggrowth,strengthenthetrade. - ThaiGB. Gross LB issuance for FY2026-2027 should remain broadly stable despite a significantly heavier maturity profile, withadditional financing needs likely met through T-bills and PNs. Improving long-end demand from financial corporations supportsourconstructiveviewofthebackend. benchmark weight has fallen by 1.Oppt to 9%, the largest decline among index constituents, followed by Thailand (-0.6ppt) andMalaysia (-0.5ppt). Following Indonesia's weight reduction, China and India remain the only Asian markets at the 10% cap. government bonds increased by 9.3% in H1 - which is the fourth largest among index constituents - this has been more thanoffset by the drag from FX (-7.6%) and bond-valuation (-6.8%), resulting in a ~5% net decline in the USD market value of eligiblesecurities. It has been the second-worst performing market in the index, behind only Turkiye. CEEMEA and LATAM have gained benchmark share over this period on a combination of heavier issuance, currency appreciationand bond market outperformance.Colombiarecordedthe largest increaseinbenchmark weight (+1.1ppt), supported byarincrease in supply of eligible bonds (15%), COP appreciation against the dollar (11.5%) and bond valuation (5.8%). Poland, BrazilandHungaryalsorecordednotablegains. -Indonesia'slossofbenchmarkshareillustratesthesensitivityofindexweightstorelativemarketperformance.Allelseconstant, we estimate that IndoGBs would need to outperform other constituents in the