亚洲债券供需监测月报

AsiaEuropeNorth America 6 October 2025Date Fixed IncomeAsia Macro Strategy Notes Bond Demand-Supply Monitor Joey Chung Highlights from this edition of our monthly Asia bond demand-supply monitor; Strategist+65-6423 8298 1.CGBs. With the government having front loaded its CGB supply, Q4 shouldsee relatively lower issuance pressure. That might only be of limited helpthough for the curve slope, which continues to be driven by the rotationfrom bonds into equities. Hazel Lai Macro Strategist+852-2203-6150 Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist+65-6423 8947 2.IGBs. (1) Cuts to back-end IGB supply; (2) promise to shift SDL tenors; and(3) contained SDL supply – combined with; (4) a dovish RBI; and (5)favorable bond-swap technicals – favour being long bonds. Perry Kojodjojo Strategist+852-2203 6153 3.IndoGBs. The persistent reduction in liquidity absorption by BI meansbanks will likely increasingly park excess cash in front end IndoGBs, evenas supply math remains comfortable. Sameer GoelMacro Strategist+65-642-36973 4.KTBs. With funding progressing slower than average (~25% remaining vshalf that in most years), we can expect relatively heavy supply to continueinto year-end. Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558 5.MGS & MGII.Net supply for 2026 could be marginally smaller than this year,but larger maturities mean gross supply is set to rise. 6.RPGBs. Demand-supply dynamics look balanced. BTr will likely fully issuetheir full Q4 target of PHP 175bn, aided by strong domestic demand. 7.SGS. Net issuance is likely to end up being smaller than the guidance fromMAS earlier in the year, and combined with safe haven inflows, shouldcontribute to suppressed yields. 8.ThaiGBs. BoT's policy decision on October 8 could trigger steepening inthe curve, especially as duration issuance is set to rise towards end of Q4(which is Q1 for the new fiscal year). China nDeclining supply pressure.As the government has front-loaded its CGBissuances (Figure 1), net CGB funding progress has reached 82% by end-September vs 73% average over the past 3Y. nConclusion of ultra-long special CGB issuance. The last remaining 75bnultra-long special CGB will be issued in October. It is worth noting that theMoF has switched the planned 30Y CGB auction in October into twoauctions (20Y and 50Y CGB). Considering the previous auction sizes ofthese two tenors, we believe the remaining issuances will be split equally (35bn for each of the tenors). This change likely stems from the recentunderperformance of the 30Y. Meanwhile, the 20Y/30Y slope had been -3bp earlier in the year due to the 20Y's illiquidity – and only flipped back topositive only over the past few weeks. We expect this spread to remainpositive going forward. nThe ongoing equity rally is likely to keep the curve relatively steep. WMPshave been the largest CGB sellers since July, which have reduced their CGBpositions by a total of 181bn (141bn in July and 62bn in August), followedby securities companies (141bn in July and 9bn in August). This was likelydriven by the equity-bond asset rotation (Figure 2). Indeed, the growth ofWMPs has tended to slow amid an equity rally. Given that equity marginpurchases have remained elevated (2.5% of the market cap – record highover the past five years) in September, we believe WMPs’ demand for CGBsshould remain subdued. India RBI's post policy press conference had one development – and one promise – thathas further raised our conviction in being long-IGBs. nIGB supply adjustments.Back-end supply has been trimmed (Figure 3),alongside lower full year supply – now programmed at 14.72tn comparedto guidance for 14.8tn in the budget. Issuance run rate is in line withprevious 3Y average. nSDL tenor adjustments.The RBI Governor in his post policy pressconference alluded to implementing a similar shift for SDL auctions as well.Indeed, the RBI in its indicative Oct-Dec borrowing calendar guided States'supply at 2.82tn – in line with our expectation – but less than the market'sof ~3.2tn (with some as high as 3.5tn). Meanwhile, the spread dynamic between SDL -to- pre-auction IGB yields hascontinued to correct lower (Figure 5) – suggesting the peak of the pressure may bebehind us. 6 October 2025Asia Macro Strategy Notes Moreover, theRBI has shifted back to a dovish stancewith its Oct 1 policy decision– after turning relatively neutral with June’s 50bp of cuts – even as it left policy ratesunchanged. The Governor suggested the reason for a delay is down to the centralbank wanting to assess the impact of the recent GST cuts as well as the continuingtransmission of prior cuts. Overall, our conviction in remaining long IGBs sustains. With nearly 80% of a cutalready in the price for the December meeting, we continue to think IGBs are abetter long here. Indeed, the INR OIS 1Y1Y -to- IGB-10Y spread already looks well-priced compared to historicals (Figure 4) – allowing forbonds to outperformswaps. Figure 3: Back-end IGB issuance will be brought downover th