亚洲债券供需监测第六版

Asia Asia Macro StrategyNotes Bond Demand-Supply Monitor Joey ChungStrategist+65-6423 8298 In this sixth edition of our monthly Asia bond demand-supply monitor, we reiterateour updated 10Y forecasts and highlight; Hazel Lai 1.IndoGBscould bemost negatively impacted by the potential changes toGBI-EM,such as the implementation of an 8% cap for each country andinclusion of RPGBs with a 3.75% weight;2.larger ultra-long datedCGBissuance in Q3 adds steepening pressure totheyield curve,but this could be smoothed by insurance productpurchases that are being front loaded;3.rising lifer premiums, after a slowdown phase of nearly six months, shouldincrementally support back-end demand forIGBs and help flatten thecurve;4.weak back-end demand forIndoGBs and mitigated supply for theremainder of the year as a cash surplus drawdown more than offsets thewider fiscal deficit;5.2025 grossKTBsupply is anticipated to be KRW 235tn, of which 43tn (or40% of remaining issuance) is likely to be raised in the 20Y+ tenor in H2;6.a slowerRPGBissuance run rate though any retail bond issuance is likelyto be smaller this year;7.strong back-end demand forThaiGBsand a likely similar FY2026 issuancesize compared with this year. Macro Strategist+852-2203-6150 Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist+65-6423 8947 Perry Kojodjojo Strategist+852-2203 6153 Sameer GoelMacro Strategist+65-642-36973 Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558 Impact of potential changes to GBI-EMAmove to an 8% country cap(which was the feedback from our recent trip nto the US) will disproportionately impact bond markets with currentallocation exceeding that threshold, specifically India, Indonesia andMalaysia (Figure 1). nAssuming $250bn of funds track the index and current allocations fall to the8% cap, we expectoutflows to impact IndoGBs the most. We estimate$4.9bn in IndoGB outflows, representing 1.5% of its outstanding bonds.This is larger than potential outflows from IGBs (0.1%) and MGS & MGII(0.5%). nMeanwhile, a3.75% weight for RPGBsis equivalent to ~$8bn in inflows.However, considering: (1) ~$5.5bn of foreign inflows since the start of 2024that could be eventually counted against the final GBI-EM weight; and (2)potential allocations to peso-linked supranational issuances; we believe the additional inflows could be as low as $3-4bn. China nThe MoF has scheduled 36 CGB auctions in Q3, with two fewer 10Yauctions and one more 50Y auction compared with Q2. Based on recentauction sizes,we estimate Q3 gross CGB supply at RMB3.6tn.Accountingfor 2tn in maturities,net CGB supply is projected to reach 1.6tn,approximately 480bn higher than in Q2. nThe increase in ultra-long-dated CGB (>10Y) issuance is likely driving thissupply pressure. We anticipate a total of676bn in ultra-long-dated CGBsto be issued in Q3(192bn in July, 242bn in August and September). nWe believe theyield curve will gradually steependue to front-loadedpurchases driven by expectations of a potential reduction in the currentpredetermined return on insurance products in September. However, amore pronounced steepening would require either: (a) stronger loangrowth, or (b) a more significant rotation from fixed income to equities amidimproved growth prospects. Korea nTo finance the supplementary budget, KRW21.1tn in KTBs will be issued,increasing the 2025 gross and net supply to 235tn and 117tn, respectively.With 40% of annual gross KTB issuance in 20Y or longer,20Y+ KTB supplyis estimated to reach 43tn in H2. nOnthe demand side,life insurers'monthly premium growth hasrecovered to 7.4% yoy in April from an average of 1.5% in Q1 – albeit stillbelow the 2024 average of 10.5%. nOn balance, we still expect additional steepening pressure ahead, withmost of it likely in Q3. Assuming the additional supply begins in August, weestimate Q3 net KTB supply at 30 tn, 2.3 times the 3-year average. Source : Deutsche Bank, MoEF India RBI's OMO purchasesof government securities boosted the central bank'sIGB holdings by INR 2.8tn from January to March (Figure 5). 8 July 2025Asia Macro Strategy Notes After a period of almost six-months, lifer premiumshave started to riseagainwhich should help flatten India's very steep curve, especially 10Y/30Y(Figure 6). nWhile this will incrementally make the 30Y point more attractive, for nowwe remain long 10Y IGB, FX unhedged (target 5.80%)as we see moreimmediate catalysts playing out in the front-end. Indonesia nThe DMO has set its Q3 target issuance at IDR 245tn (excluding bills),aligning with average issuance sizes observed in H1.H1 saw averageissuances of 26.4tn per conventional auction and 8.6tn per Sukuk auction.Applying these averages to the planned 7 conventional and 7 Sukukauctions in Q3 yields the target of 245tn. nThis Q3 target appears conservatively estimated.The first conventionalauction in Q3, held on July 1st, resulted in 30tn being issued, exceeding theH1 average by over 10%. Should demand for IndoGBs remain strong, theDMO could potentially exceed its