Morning Insight: August 18, 2026

Morning Insight:August 18, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen WuCertification：Z0024232wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Polyester:Strong Valuation, Favoring Long Calendar SpreadsPTA and MEG prompt-month deliverable supplies remain tight, squeezingdownstream margins. On the cost side, further gains in crude oil priceshave lifted valuations across the polyester complex. On the supply side, PX and PTA operating rates have edged higher.Shenghong's 4 mtpa refinery and Fuhai's 1 mtpa PX unit have recentlyrestarted, causing PX supply conditions to shift marginally towardlooser. However, PTA supply recovery has lagged expectations followingtyphoon-related disruptions, resulting in more pronounced inventorydestocking. The mid-month restarts of Weilian and Honggang units havebeen delayed, while persistent rainfall in parts of Jiangsu and Zhejianghas slowed cargo unloading,further tightening spot availability. Spotliquidity remains constrained, with the basis strengthening to around RMB320/tonne. MEG spot inventories have fallen to a historically low 290,000 tonnes,while the spot basis has surged to around RMB 480/tonne. The September-January spread has also risen above RMB 700/tonne, reaching a new high.On the demand side, higher raw material prices have encouraged downstreamprocurement, leading to an improvement in sales and production. Atpresent, however, orders remain relatively healthy mainly in the Hainingarea. The core market driver remains the near-term supply shortage. Maintain abullish calendar-spread strategy for PTA and MEG, while processingmargins for staple fiber and PET bottle chips are expected to remain under short-term pressure. Containerized Freight Index (Europe):Short-Term Strength May Continue,with Focus on the Initial Booking Guidance Two positive factors are currently reinforcing each other in the nearterm. First, typhoons continue to constrain effective shipping capacity.Second, the geopolitical risk premium has risen again. Bulls are bettingon a recovery in the geopolitical risk premium and continued capacitydisruptions from typhoons, while also looking for spillover effects fromhigher freight rates on other routes—including the U.S., South America,Middle East–India/Pakistan, and Red Sea routes—to prompt Europeancarriers to announce rate increases and achieve a“raise rates to haltthe decline”effect. However, MSC is expected to release its pricing for the first week ofSeptember on Tuesday or Wednesday, leaving a limited window for a rateincrease announcement. Moreover, its vessel utilization has beenrelatively weak, and our base case is for a decline of US$100–200/FEU,with only a very low probability of maintaining current pricing. TheSeptember contract is increasingly trading on delivery-related dynamics.Current prices have already priced in an approximately US$300/FEU declineupon the opening ofbookings. If the actual decline is≤US$200/FEU, theSeptember contract should continue to repair its discount. A US$100–200/FEU decline would correspond to a discount-repair range of roughly2,350–2,550 points, while maintaining the existing pricing level wouldimply around 2,550–2,750 points. The October contract is expected to track September in the short term.Its upside will depend on the extent of the September discount repair,while its downside will depend on how quickly the impact of the typhoonfades and on fuel oil price movements. From a trading perspective, intraday positioning can moderately increaselong exposure, either by adding to September longs or covering Octobershorts. On a weekly horizon, the key is to monitor the September contract to determine whether the near-term discount-repair process has run itscourse. Once September reaches its target range, the broader strategyshould remain short October, expressed either through an outright shortposition or a short October/long December calendar spread. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's domestic oil and gas supply is expected to reach 440 milliontonnes of oil equivalent by 2030 under a new five-year plan for thesector, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said on Monday.The plan, jointly issued by the NEA and the National Development andReform Commission, also sets targets to add 20,000 km of long-distanceoil and gas pipelines by 2030. This will bring the country's totalpipeline network to 220,000 km. "Oil and gas are key sources of energy and industrial raw materials, withtheir supply closely linked to China's energy security and people'slivelihoods," it notes. Under the new plan, China aims to raise its natural gas reserves to theequivalent of more than 13 percent of national consumption, and bring theannual carbon dioxide injection from carbon capture and storage as wellas carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCS/CCUS)