2026年第二季度中国银行业绩预览：韧性季度表现持续

ResearchAnalyst+852-220-36141 The Msci China Bank Index has rallied 10% since its recent bottom in early July, driven by a market-wide rotation into high-dividend-yield stocks. We expect thisdefensive rotation to persist as overall market trading breadth improves.Underpinningthistrendisaresilient2Q26performanceacrossourcoveragebanks.Weexpectnetprofitgrowthtoimproveto4%YoYin2Q26(upfrom3%YoYin1Q26)supportedbystabilizedNiMsandstrongfeeincomemomentum,particularlyfromwealthmanagement product (WMP)salesandtrading income.Consequently,weforecastaggregaterevenueandPPOPgrowthof5%YoYand6%YoY,respectively.for2Q26-representingaslightmoderationfrom1Q26duetoahigherbaseeffectfrom the same period last year. Anticipate resilientNIl growth,withNIMpressureeasing in2Q26.For banks under our coverage, we anticipate a 7%YoY increase in Nll,which translates to a flat performanceQoQ.Weproject amild 3bpsNiM contraction(comparedtothe4bpsQoQexpansionseenin1Q26),drivenbythegraduallyfadingbenefitsofdepositrepricinganda moderatedecline innewloanyields.Thiscomesdespiteourexpectationthatloangrowthwillslightlydecelerateto7%YoY(1%QoQ)offthehighbaseof1Q26. AccordingtothePBOC,thebankingsystem'sweightedaverageinterestratesfornewcorporateloansandmortgageswereloweredby2bpsand1bpsto3.04%and3.05% in 2Q26,respectively,driven primarily by sustained loan repricing.Meanwhile,newtermdepositcostsdroppedfaster,falling3bpsto12.8%in2Q26Asthebenefits ofdeposit repricinggraduallyfade,concerns overNiM compressionpressure are likely to re-emerge in 2H26, a trend evidenced by the recent re-launching of 3-and 5-year CDs. Non-interest incomegrowthsupportedbyWMPsalesandbondtrading We expectfee incometo grow by 3% YoY, supported bythe sustained migration ofdeposits into mutual funds and wealth management products amid strong capitalmarketactivities.However,tradingincomeisexpectedtomoderateto1%YoYfromthehighbaseof 2Q25.Thisincludesmoderatefairvaluegainsfrombonds-drivenbyanapproximate8bpsslidein10YRgovernmentbondyieldsduringthequarter- BanksChinabanks WeexpectrevenueandPPOPgrowthof5%YoYand6%YoYin2Q26,respectively, markingadecelerationfromthe11%growthrecordedin1Q26duetoahigherbasein2Q25.Weanticipateoverallassetqualitytoremainstable,withNPLratioslargelyflat.SteadyPPOPgrowthof6%YoYwillallowbankstotaketheopportunitytobeefuptheirallowancebuffers.However,wenoteadivergencebetweencorporateandretail asset quality; credit costs for consumer finance and credit cards are likely tostayata higherrunrate.Furthermore,creditcostscouldfacemoderate headwindsin3Q26amiddeceleratingmacroeconomic activity. For2Q26,weanticipatestate-ownedbankstooutperformsmallerbanksingeneral. WeexpectBOC andABCtoleadthepack,driven byhigher%YoYprofitgrowth.Thisoutperformancewill likelystemfrom strongernon-interest incomeforABC,and On a 12-month horizon,we prefer state-owned banks with robust corporatecredit conditions.Conversely,we remain less favorabletoward retail-driven banksdue to sustainedpressurefrom the contraction of householdbalance sheets andelevated credit risks withintheconsumerloanand creditcard segments.Assuch,CCB-HandBOC-Hremainourtoppicks. BanksChinabanks BanksChinabanks Companted Result Date BanksChinabanks WepreferH-sharebanksfortheirhigherdividendyields,moreattractivevaluations, and the potentialtobenefit fromfund inflows as overseas investors reverse theirunderweight positions.Additionally,we expect H-share banks to capture netinflows duringcapital rotationfromoverseas and Chineseonshoremarketsfortheirdefensiveplay. ThedividendyieldfortheCSI300BankIndexstandsat5.0%,leavingitsspreadoverChina's 10-year government bond yield at an elevated 3.4%-well above thehistoricalaverageof1.6%.Thiswidespread remainshighlyattractivetoinvestors,particularly domestic long-only funds, amid declining yields on other domesticassets. BanksChinabanks BanksChinabanks Source: Companydata, Deutsche Bank estimates BanksChinabanks H-share bankvaluationbands-12-monthforwardprice-to-bookratio (PBR) BanksChinabanks BanksChinabanks BanksChina banks BanksChinabanks Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request ourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EguityResearchDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosures.can.alsobefoundat,https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing AnalystCertificationTheviews expressed inthis report accuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsof theundersignedlead analystaboutthe subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anycompensation forprovidinga specific recommendation orview in this report.JohnnyXie. BanksChina banks EquityRatingandDispersionKey TheEquityRatingDispersionChartdepictsthefollowing The proportionof recommendations that are rated"buy","sell"and"hold"overthe previous 12months.This is shownforE.g.50%abovethe"buy"/"CompaniesCovered"barmean