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Technology semi supply chain earnings Global Head of Tech Hardware &Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+85229966916Adithya Metuku', CFA +OurscenariosshowthatsustainedCsPcapexmomentumtoFY28ecouldbeachievedwithjustifiableleverage Senior Global Technology AnalystHSBC Bank plcadithya.metuku@hsbc.com+442032682960Paul Rossington* • Reasonable ROiC for CSPs even in scenarios assumingadditionaldebttofundincrementalcapex Senior GlobalTechPlatforms AnalystHSBC Bank plcpaul.rossington@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6734Abhishek Shukla, CFA Semiearnings should be intact given thesustainable CsP capex trend:Despiterecentbullishcapexandcapacityexpansionannouncementsbysemisupplychainstalwarts likeTSMC,Intel,andASML,market concerns haveemerged overCSPcapex peaking given thatmosthyperscalers'free cashflow generation could turnnegative in FY27. This has increased market focus on hyperscalers generatingpositive ROIC from their heavy investments. As a result, the SOX index is -16%(vsS&P500+3%)since1July.However,webelievehyperscalers'capextrendremains sustainable with acceptableleverage andROiC goingforwardto supportsemi supply chain capex guidance,as well earnings growth expectations. Senior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+9714 5093343Charlie Rothbarth* Global TechPlatforms AnalystHSBC Bank plccharlie.rothbarth@hsbc.com+44 203 2685284 Room for upside to FY27-28 csP capex as increased leverage is justifiable:As per consensus; 1) collective CsP capex growth will decelerate from 95% y-o-y in2026e (USD731bn)to 46% in 2027e (USD1.1trn)and 11% in 2028e (USD1.2trn);and 2) CSPs will start to see negative free cash flow starting fromFY27.We performa scenarioanalysistoseehowmuch incremental debt CsPsneedto raiseto exceedconsensusFY27-28capexforecasts.Ourscenarioimpliesanetdebt/equityratioofy-o-y. In FY28e, the net debt/equity ratio would need to increase to 25-43% to meetpotential capex of USD1.9-2.5trn or capexgrowth of 46-92%y-o-y (assuming FY27ecapex of USD1.3trn based on Case Il in our FY27e scenario). Head of UsTechnologyResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153 Nicolas Cote-Colisson*MD,Head of Global Tech PlatformsHSBC Continental Europenicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6826 *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securties (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Overall csPROiCdecliningbut still acceptabletosupportcapextrend:Anotherconcern investors have with the significant CsP capex trend is the ROIC (return oninvestedcapital)thatCsPplayerswouldgenerate.Basedonconsensusestimateswe see overallCSPROIC declining from35% inFY24e to22%inFY26.However,weexpect that CSP ROIC could remain at 22% and 21% in FY27 and FY28, respectively,based on consensus capex, or contract to 19% in FY27 and 17% in FY28e based onour scenarios,which webelieve is still acceptable to supportthe ongoing capex trend. OverallAl semi trade and earnings visibility are intact:We conclude that CSPsfundamentally have more room to raise debt without significantly compromising theirROiC tofundtheongoing capex trend.Therefore,semiconductor companies couldsee sustained growth to2028e and market concerns about funding issues at CSPs forcontinued capex expansionseem overdone in our view.We do not seeany significantearnings downside to the overall Al semi supply chain in FY27 and into FY28. Our topAI semi names remain Marvell, Intel, TSMC, and ASML given company specificdrivers that should continue to surprise the market on the upside into FY27e. HSBCFundingtheFuture Survey Al megadeals and the rest Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must beread with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobal Investment Researchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Marketconcernsdespitebullishsemidemandoutlook With demand and supply for traditional Al use cases stillnot in equilibrium, agentic Al came tothe fore earlier this year. The unprecedented surge in demand for server CPUs -a primaryenabler of agentic Al use cases - has widened the demand/supply gap further. As a result, keysemi players like TSMC, Intel, and ASML provided enhanced visibility around their capacityexpansion plans through 2028e during their June-Q financial results. TSMC: At its 2Q26 results announcement (16 July, Increasing CAPEX reiterates LT demandanincrementalUsD1oobncapitalinvestmentinArizona,US,ontopofthepreviouslya CAGR of>70% through FY26-28 (vs our pre-2Q26 result estimate of 55%). Intel: At its 2Q26 results announcement (24 July,Another beat & raise; enhanced foundryconfidence),Intel raised itsFY26ecapexguidance to>USD20bn frompreviousguidanceof USD17.7bn (with tool spending up 40% y-0-y)vs pre-2Q26result consensus estimatesofUSD15bn.Intelacknowledge