美国半导体云计算资本支出预览至2027年及以后

Cloud Capex Preview:through 2027 andbeyond Industry Overview 09 July 2026 AI capexCY26/27 outlook now up +78%/+35% YoYData center remainsthe key stronghold into Q2 semis earnings, with four major US hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) set to report in the coming weeks.Ahead of earnings, our tracker (mix of BofAe and consensus) indicates Q2 globalhyperscale capex at $197bn, up +30% QoQ or +83% YoY. For CY26/CY27, capex nowpoints to $851bn/$1.15Tn (+78%/+35% YoY), well above our +68%/+25% post-Q1outlook in May. Importantly, we view capex as increasingly sustainable into CY27 andbeyond, backed by:1)commitments and backlog, with collective RPO exceeding $2Tnacross the top 4 CSPs,2)improving AI ROI and frontier model revenue generation(Anthropic now >$47bn ARR), and3)recent debt/equity financing of ~$244bn focusedon B/S optimization, which we believe is easily repayable via future FCF. Overall, our topAI picks include NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, AMD, CRDO, along with related semicap (KLAC,LRCX, AMAT), and memory (MU) levered to our $1.7Tn 2030 AI spending thesis. EquityUnited StatesSemiconductors Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1755vivek.arya@bofa.com Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 556 4825duksan.jang@bofa.com Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 2232michael.mani@bofa.com Capex backed by$2Tn+ of customer commitment, backlog Importantly, hyperscaler capex is increasingly backed by customer cloud commitmentsand backlog, providing greater demand visibility and sustainability.MSFTreported$627bn of commercial RPO, with only 25% recognized within the next 12 months, whileORCLdisclosed $638bn of RPO, with just 12% due within one year and 34% withinyears two to three.AWSdisclosed $364bn of backlog (excluding the recent Anthropicdeal), whileGOOGLCloud backlog more than doubled QoQ to >$460bn. In aggregate,disclosed RPO and backlog exceed$2Tn across the top four CSPs, suggesting ameaningful portion of the CY26-28 AI infra buildout is supported by contracted demand. Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3146liam.pharr@bofa.com Cloud Capex Tracker:Alibaba, Amazon,Baidu, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle,Tencent FCF pressured through CY28, but ROI improving quicklyWe expect hyperscalerFCF to remain pressured through CY28 as cloud capex rises to ~100-115% of op. cash flow. As a result, we see aggregate FCF margins to reach -1% inCY26, -5% in CY27, and -4% in CY28, vs. historical +15-20%. However, we also notefrontier AI demand continues to accelerate, with OpenAI expected to scale revenue from$13bn in 2025 to $62bn by 2027, while Anthropic's ARR has inflected from just ~$9bn inDec-2025 to >$47bn by May-2026, in just 5 months. As prior infra capex/investmentsfrom 2024-2025 continue beginning generating revenues, we expect industry ROI tocontinue improving in the foreseeable future, with AI workloads monetizing at scale andeventually FCF improving materially beyond the current investment phase. Debt financingof ~$244bn not a problem, capital is ample Since beginning of 2026, top 5 hyperscalers have collectively raised ~$244bn of capital,primarily through long-dated debt (largely 3-40 year maturities) and permanent equity.Importantly, we view these financings as B/S optimization and liquidity preservationrather than evidence of capex/funding stress. Capital market access remains favorableand maturities extend well beyond the current AI investment cycle, at which pointaggregate hyperscaler FCF could expand materially beyond the ~$200-250bn+/yraverage in 2020-2024 and more than payoff the raised capital. BofA Securities does and seeks to dobusiness with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 15. Analyst Certification on page 11. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 9. Contents Cloud/Carrier Capex Overview3Capital raises: low cost of debt, sufficient future FCF5Capex sustainability: demand signals increasingly positive6Capex is increasingly backed by commitments and backlog7Glossary:8 Cloud/Carrier Capex Overview CY26/27 capex estimates have consistently increased over time Below, we highlight that Street estimates for global cloud capex have steadily increasedover the last 12 months. On an absolute $ basis, the outlook for CY26 capex (excl. leasesfor like-for-like comp) has risen +99% YoY, with CY27 capex outlook rising +132% YoY. Including capital leases (as in Exhibit 1), the outlook for CY26 capex has risen +96% YoYand CY27 capex +146%. On a YoY growth basis (as in Exhibit 1), the current CY26outlook calls for +78% growth YoY, with CY27 suggesting +35% YoY. Global cloud capex estimate changes over past 12 months (excl. leases and incl. leases) On an operating cash flow basis, cloud capex is expected to reac