台积电（TSMC）- 买入：预计看涨势头持续，受2027年资本支出进一步上行推动

Semiconductors&Equipment furtherFY27capex upside +Increasingadvancedfoundrytightnessleadstomoreaggressive FY26-FY27e capex momentum+Maintain Buywith higher TP ofTWD2,700 (from TWD2,400) 2700.002400.00 TSMC's January-Marchcombined revenuewasTWD1,134bn(+8%QoQ/+35% YoY), slightly above company guidance of TWD1,093-TWD1,131bn.We expect1Q26e GM of 65%, which is at the high-end of guidance (consensus at 64.2%). Withhigher revenue andmargins, wenow expect 1Q26e EPS growth of 6%QoQ toreachTWD20.71.Ahead of the 16 April analyst meeting, we expect 2Q26e revenue growthof 8% QoQ (consensus +7%)and GMof 65% (consensus at 64.2%),as we believehigher utilisation should offset margin headwinds from overseas fab expansion. Increasingfoundry tightness todrive moreaggressive capex momentumDuring the previous earnings call,management guided FY26e capex of USD52- 56bn, implying32%YoY increase at the midpoint.We raise ourFY26e capex fromUSD54bn toUSD56bn.Inaddition,weremainaggressiveonFY27e capexand raisefromUSD64bn toUSD70bn,which remains above consensusat USD60bn, implying25% YoY growth in FY27e. We believe advanced foundry capacity tightness hasexacerbated year-to-date with some ofTSMC's customers,likeAMD(AMDUS,Buy,USD245.04)and Nvidia (NVDAUS, Buy,USD 188.63),now looking at Samsungfoundry for additional support, while Intel (INTC US, Hold, USD62.38) foundry alsoappears to be engaging with several new customers. Hence, we believe it isreasonablethatTSMC will look tobecomemoreaggressivewithFY27e capex inboth front-end and back-end manufacturing, as well as to support customer efforts todiversify manufacturing footprint overseas. Despite ongoing weakness fromconsumerelectronics,with robust Al and serverdemand,weexpect TSMC's revenuegrowth in FY26/27e to reach33%/27% YoY.In addition,with the introduction of ourFY28e estimates, we expect TSMC to extend its FY23-28e 5-year revenue CAGR to29%. Such high revenue CAGR should be able to sustain its spending, keeping itscapexintensityratioat35%/34%/34%inFY26e/27e/28e. Source: Refinitiv IBES, HSBC estimates Frank Lee*Global Head of Tech Hardware&Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+85229966916 Ted Lin*Analyst, Taiwan TechnologyHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limitedted.ht.lin@hsbc.com.tw+886266312870 Retain Buy rating with a revised target price of TWD2,700 (from TWD2,400) We make minor changes to our estimates and introduce FY28 estimates.Our FY27erevenueandEPSare2.1%and2.0%aboveconsensus,respectively.Ourrevisedrounded target price of TWD2,700 is derived by applying an unchanged target P/Emultiple of 27x to our rolled over 2H26-1H27e EPS of TWD100.97 (fromFY26e EPSof TWD88.64).We believe a target P/E multiple of 27x is reasonable as TSMC'spricing power has never been as strong as now, dueto strong Al demand and higherincentives for TSMC to adjust pricing to reflect higher costs. With 35.7% impliedupside, we maintain our Buy rating. Jyothi U*, CFAAssociateBangalore *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBCGlobal InvestmentSmit14 to 16 April 2026Find outmore Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com multipleof27xtoourrolledover2H26-1H27eEPSofTWD100.97(fromFY26eEPSofTWD88.64).We believe a target P/Emultipleof 27x is reasonable asTSMC's pricing power hasneverbeenas strongasnow,dueto strongAldemandandhigherincentivesforTsMCtoadjust pricing to reflect higher costs. With 35.7% implied upside, we maintain our Buy rating.Our target price for the ADR (TSM US, USD370.6 as of the 10 April close) is USD502.03 (from USD456.23),which is based on a 5:1 share conversion, HSBC TWD/USD forecastof 32.0, andjustified given TSMC's active capacityexpansion plan (additional USD10obn)inArizona, US. Downside risks Weaker-than-expected 5nm orders. Intensified US-China trade tensions and tighter restrictions on shipments to companies withbusinesses relatedtomainland China.Slowerramp-upofadvancednodeproductionandyieldratesHigher depreciation costs from investing in advanced nodes. Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other Equities:Stockratings and basisforfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individua