台积电：重塑资本支出曲线：AI可见性推动盈利性扩张

Reshaping capex curve: AI visibility enablesprofitable scale-up Reiterate Rating:BUY| PO:2,360 TWD| Price:1,690 TWD Significantlyhigher capex in ‘26-28 for secular growth TSMC raised the AI TAM forecast from 45% CAGR in’24-29 to at 55-60% CAGR (vs.45% prior) on the hyperscalers’commitment in AI investment, lifting its sales close to+30% YoY this year and‘24-29 CAGR to ~25% (vs. close to 20% guide prior). To supportthe leading edge demand, TSMC guided US$52-56bn capex for‘26 and we expectfurther leg up to US$58bn in‘27, though capital intensity stays under control at 33%. Pricing strength as a lever for margins expansionTSMC’s technology leadership should sustain, lifting blended wafer pricing by ~30% CAGR from‘25-27 (vs. +17% CAGR from’20-25) on the hike of like-for-like advancednode price, widening starting price premium on new nodes along with mix shift oncapacity optimization. We estimate its wafer capacity and shipment could stay stable,with advanced node +15% CAGR from’25-27 balanced by decline in mature nodes. Thestrong pricing and sustaining utilization should allow its sales to outgrow depreciation(+20% CAGR), expanding its GMs to 64%/65% in‘26/27 (vs. its structural GMs of 56%+). Near term resilience backed by continued AI strengthTSMC’s 1Q26 sales is guided to grow 4% QoQ in US$ on solid HPC/AI builds more than offsetting mobile seasonality. The GMs, on better pricing, utilization, productivity gaincushioning the dilution from overseas fab ramp, is guided to reach 63-65% in 1Q26, wellabove our street high 60.9% and street 60.0% estimates, taking OpMs to 55% midpoint. Strong EPS outlook at compelling valuationWeraise‘26-27 EPS to NT$91.77/NT$118.06 and keep our Buy rating on TSMC and lift our PO from NT$2,150/US$430 to NT$2,360/US$470 based on the same 20x‘27E P/E.The phase of high revenue growth and margins expansion should sustain on itstechnology leadership and mix upgrade. This research report provides general information only. No partof this report may be usedor reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or otherpersons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. iQprofileSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Company SectorSemiconductors Company Description TSMCwas founded in 1987 and is listed in Taiwan(2330TT) and the US (TSM/NYS).TSMC is the largest andglobal leader in integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing. As abuild-to-order foundry, it provides a wide range of value-add activities: IC manufacturing, mask-making, IC designservices, turnkey solutions, and process development. Weattribute its success to its proven, winning business model,unparalleled scale advantage, optimized execution, andtechnology scope and depth. 5 shares = 1 ADR. Investment Rationale The ongoing semi content growth in mobile, rise of artificialintelligence (AI), and proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT)should result in sustainable upside in aggregate computingpower globally. TSMC, as the leading contract manufacturerof semiconductor chips, is in a good position to capitalize.We are structurally positive on TSMC and expect it tosustain over 15% growth with rising FCF from 2026onwards. Stock Data Shares / ADR5.00Price to Book Value8.1x Stronger capex guide to support secularadvanced node growth TSMC guided capex to grow from US$41bn in 2025 to US$52-56bn in 2026, anothersignificant increase following the ramp since 2024 (US$31bn). Based on our bottom upcapex and capacity analysis, the fast growing capex should reflects the rising cost per 1kWPM on the advanced nodes vs. mature nodes, with the equipment cost per 1k WPMadvanced wafer capacity expansion has grown from US$156mn in 2023 to US$218mn in2025. Exhibit1:TSMC CapexTSMC guided capex to grow to US$52-56bn in 2026 This could further rise to US$318mn in 2027 considering more 2nm capacitydeployment and the initial ramp of A16 node, already factoring in more common use ofequipment on the advanced nodes from 7nm and below nodes. Our analysis is consistentwith the feedback from IBS that the tooling cost per 1k WPM capacity on 2nm wouldrequire US$350mn vs. US$250mn on 3nm and US$160mn on 5nm. Exhibit2:TSMC total Capex vs. TSMC equipment Capex perkwaferEquipment cost per 1k WPM advanced wafer capacity to further rise in coming years Therefore, even with a higher level of capex spending, the installed capacity for TSMC isbarely growing. Considering the conversion for a portion of its 6”and 8”and mature 12”fabs and the continued ramp of advanced nodes, we estimate the company’s total front-end manufacturing capacity will drop by 4% YoY in 2026. The trend could be more stable to accommodate its customers’demand especially