欧盟医疗科技：2025年及以后的医院资本支出周期。由于结构动态变化，衰退风险较小

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingPHIA.NA (Philips)OOLDPHG (Philips ADR)OOLDSHL.GR (Healthineers)OOLDEKTAB.SS ( Elekta )MOLDEDMSPXPRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate Philips Outperform with a new price target of €26.50 (ADR $30.30) where we have lowered our target multiple from15.5x to 14.0x to reflect uncertainties around tariffs.We rate Healthineers Outperform with a new price target of €59.00 where we maintained the target multiple at 21.0x as wethink it properly reflects tariff uncertainties.We rate Elekta Market-Perform with a new price target of SEK 55.00 where we have lowered our target multiple from 13.0x to12.0x to reflect uncertainties around tariffs.EUROPEAN MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES & SERVICES VALUATION COMPS TABLEEXHIBIT 1:Global Medtech comps table22-May-25Rel. Perf.30dYTDLTMSiemens Healthineers-1%-15%-15%Royal Philips-11%-24%-23%Elekta-5%-16%-52%Smith & Nephew0%-2%0%Coloplast-17%-27%-31%Convatec0%15%4%Fresenius Medical Care17%11%33%DaVita-6%-5%-6%Alcon-13%-5%-17%Carl Zeiss-10%32%-42%Straumann3%-14%-15%Sonova6%-18%-12%Demant11%-9%-25%GN Store Nord-8%-40%-61%Amplifon8%-33%-48%Oxford Nanopore-4%-13%9%DiaSorin-17%-7%-12%bioMerieux-7%14%20%Qiagen-9%-15%-14%Tecan8%-16%-54%Fresenius SE1%20%54%Gerrisheimer4%-15%-46%Getinge-7%5%-8%Ambu-17%-10%-25%Cochlear-5%-16%-20%Johnson & Johnson-13%7%-10%Medtronic-9%6%-12%Abbott-10%18%17%Boston Scientific0%18%29%Edwards Lifescience-3%3%-26%Stryker-1%6%3%Zimmer Biomet-15%-12%-32%Intuitive Surgical4%5%26%Dexcom17%10%-45%Insulet22%25%69%Tandem22%-39%-68%GE Healthcare2%-10%-24%Baxter-4%5%-22%Becton Dickinson-24%-23%-36%Solventum17%10%-45%MSCI Europe9%9%5%S&P 50011%-1%10%Lisa Clive covers Siemens Healthineers, Philips, Elekta, Smith & Nephew, Coloplast, Convatec, Fresesnius Medical Care and DaVitaFY24/25E and FY25/26E (Sept) for Coloplast, Healthineers and (Apr) for Elekta; Bloomberg estimates for not covered stocksSource: Bloomberg, Company reports, Bernstein estimates and analysisEUROPEAN MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES & SERVICES Table Of ContentsHealthcare Spending and the Economic Cycle.............................................................................................................................................................6GDP vs Health Expenditure - Differences Across the Atlantic.........................................................................................................................6Deferability in Medtech...................................................................................................................................................................................................9A Look At the Historical Performance of the Capital Equipment Players in a Downturn............................................................................. 12Philips’ Historic Performance.................................................................................................................................................................................... 12Healthineers’ Historic Performance........................................................................................................................................................................ 14GE Healthcare's Historic Performance.................................................................................................................................................................. 16Could This Time Be Different?......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17US Equipment Demand Through the Financial Crisis, and Why It May Have Been an Anomaly.........................................................17The World Has Changed in the Shadow of the COVID-19 Pandemic........................................................................................................ 18Aging Infrastructure Limits the Scope to Delay Equipment Purchases in Europe..................................................................................20How the Equipment Players’ Positioning Has Changed Over the Years........................................................................................................... 23Equipment OEMs Are Less Exposed to Capex Cycle, with a Growing Share of Recurring Revenue................................................23Different Imaging Modalities Will Have Different Levels of Economic Sensitivity...................................................................................25Business Line and Geographic Exposure for the Capital Equipment Companies.................................................................................. 26Philips Personal Health...................................................