医疗资本设备：衰退情景下会如何？飞利浦和西门子医疗的上行风险大于下行风险

Lisa Bedell Clive+44 207 676 7256lisa.clive@bernsteinsg.comEstelle Pang+44 207 676 7646estelle.pang@bernsteinsg.com Medical Capital Equipment: What about a recession scenario?More upside than downside risk for Philips and Healthineers Concerns about a potential US-led recession, partly driven by rising trade tensions, have renewed investor focus on the sensitivity ofhealthcare capital spending. Historically, economic downturns have led to delayed or reduced hospital capex, particularly for high-ticket diagnostic imaging equipment. However, we believe the next down cycle may play out differently. Growing patient backlogsand an aging installed base are likely to limit the extent of any pullback in capital spending. Structural tech trends are also reshapingcapex priorities and shifting business models toward more recurring revenue streams, helping to mitigate downside risks for capitalequipment players. Yesterday, we published a deep dive report on the dynamics that are driving demand in the capital equipment market today - EUMedtech: The hospital capex cycle in 2025 and beyond. Recession risks are modest due to changing structural dynamics. In thisFlashmail, we add an analysis of a potential downside scenario where a recession hits imminently, and we see earnings declinesand multiple de-ratings in response.Exhibit 1 shows a scenario analysis, where in addition to our base case for the threecompanies (where we are more bullish than consensus on Healthineers and Philips, while we are largely in-line on Elekta),we show our estimates for the stock prices in a downside scenario.Should a US-led recession occur and tariffs remain elevated,we estimate stock price declines of -15%/-16%/-30% for Healthineers, Philips, and Elekta, respectively. We lay out our assumptionsto the downside risks: (1) For Healthineers, we expect the Imaging segment to face the greatest headwinds, given its exposure to large-ticket items likeMRI and CT, and its frequent trans-Atlantic trade flows. We model a -5% downgrade to 2026E EPS and see the multiple compress to15.0x, which is below the post-IPO low of 16.8x reached in March 2020 following the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) In the case of Philips, we expect the Personal Health division to be more vulnerable than the rest of the portfolio, while Diagnosis& Treatment and Connected Care are likely to remain relatively resilient. Overall, we forecast a -7% downgrade to 2026E EPS and amultiple contraction to 11.0x, returning to levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis. (3) Elekta appears more exposed to macro risk as its growth is more skewed toward Emerging Markets, which are typically moresensitive to economic slowdowns, but the relatively low penetration will partially offset the macro headwinds. Overall, we forecast a-6% EPS downgrade and expect the multiple could compress to 10.0x. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates. Koninklijke Philips NV ForPhilips, our 12-month price target of €26.50 (ADR $30.30) is derived from a weighted average of P/E valuation (80%) andDCF (20%). Our P/E valuation applies a P/E (FY1) multiple of 14.0x to our 2026E EPS of €1.63. Our DCF uses a WACC of 8.5%and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. Siemens Healthineers AG ForSiemens Healthineers, our 12-month price target of €59.00 is derived from a weighted average of a 80% P/E to growthanalysis and 20% to our DCF analysis. Our P/E valuation uses a P/E (FY1) multiple of 21.0x against our 2025/26E EPS of €2.74.Our DCF valuation uses a WACC of 8.5% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. Elekta AB ForElekta, our 12-month price target of SEK 55 is derived from a weighted average of our P/E valuation (90%) and our DCFanalysis (10%). Our P/E valuation applies a P/E (FY1) multiple of 12.0x to our