中国经济：K型复苏下的出口引擎强劲运行

China Economics The Export Engine of the K-Shaped Economy Runs Strong CITI'S TAKE Xiangrong YuAC+852-2501-2754xiangrong.yu@citi.com April’s trade data suggest China’s external sector remains a key growthdriver, with export strength broadening across partners and led by techgoods and autos, and in contrast to the lukewarm Labor Day holiday datareleased earlier. The K-shaped reality looks set to continue as we see littlechance of meaningful policy adjustment in the near term. The mid-yearPolitburomeeting should be the next possible window for policyrecalibration, if any. For now, we think all eyes are on President Trump’supcoming visit to China (see: What to Expect from the US-China Summit). Yuanliu HuAC+852-2501-2746yuanliu.hu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. April exports rebounded more strongly than expected.Exports rose 14.1%YoY,recovering from the post-CNY slowdown and coming in above both our and marketexpectations (Citi/Mkt: 7.0%/8.4%). The April print shows continued externalmomentum and limited disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Import growthalso beat expectations at 25.3%YoY (Citi/Mkt: 15.0%/20.0%; prior: 27.8%). As aresult, the trade surplus widened to US$84.8bn. The export recovery was broad-based,driven not only by strong AI sector ordersand buyer stockpiling over fears of rising costs amid geopolitical events, but alsoimprovements in sales to the US after the IEEPA ruling. nBy partner, the sequential improvement in shipments to the US was mostnotable.Exports to the US swung back into positive growth (April: 11.3%YoY vs.March: -26.5%) after 11 months of deep contraction, as the low base followinglast year’s broad US imposition of tariffs kicked in. Shipments to ASEAN (15.2%vs. 6.9%) , EU (13.4% vs. 8.6%), Latam (13.7% vs.-3.7%) and Africa (17.3% vs.,3.1%), all quickened. Tech-heavy destinations such as Korea (24.6% vs.19.6%)continued to show robust demand, despite some moderation in Taiwan (26.9%vs. 35.2%). nBy product, the rebound was led by technology and autos.Broader categoriessuch as Mechanical & Electrical (M&E) (20.3% vs. 11.2%) and high-tech products(39.2% vs. 31.4%) improved further. Labor-intensive product exports reboundedfrom March’s slump but remained slightly negative (-0.7% vs. -29.2%).Supported by the robust global AI cycle, IC exports almost doubled (99.6% vs.84.9%), and PC exports also accelerated (47.3% vs. 37.1%). These two productscontributed more than half of headline export growth. Meanwhile, auto exportsstayed robust (44.2% vs. 43.9%), benefiting from elevated oil prices. The strong AI cycle also supported imports, while the Middle East conflictweighed on energy imports. nBy product, the composition still points more to tech and commodity demandthan to a broad recovery of the domestic market.On the tech side, high-techimports (41.9% vs. 31.5%) and M&E imports (33.5% vs. 25.9%) improvedmaterially. PC imports surged (90.6% vs. 30.2%), while IC imports remainedrobust (54.7% vs. 53.7%), with these two products contributing > 12ppt toheadline import growth. With the rise of domestic EVs, auto imports contractedfurther (-34.4% vs. -39.5%). For commodities, the price-volume divergence wasevident. Oil imports by value jumped (13.2% vs. -4.4%), while volumes slumped(-20.0% vs. -2.8%) to the lowest since August 2022. Refined product purchasescontracted in value terms (-26.4% vs. 26.7%) and even more sharply in volumeterms (-49.3% vs. 19.3%). Notably, soybean imports rebounded sharply in bothvalue (49.3% vs. 19.9%) and volume (39.4% vs. 14.8%) ahead of the US-Chinasummit. nBy partner, the import strength was concentrated in ASEAN and key techhubs.Imports from ASEAN accelerated sizably (28.7% vs. 17.5%), led by Vietnamand Indonesia. Ahead of President Trump’s visit, imports from the US recorded asecond consecutive month of growth (9.0% vs. 1.0%). Imports from the EU alsoimproved to a three-month high (14.5% vs. 8.5%). Among tech hubs, importsfrom South Korea (62.3% vs. 58.8%) and Taiwan (22.6% vs. 14.4%) accelerated,while imports from Japan moderated (21.0% vs. 35.2%), though still solid.Potentially reflecting crude trade, imports from Russia accelerated notably(39.3% vs. 19.6%). In contrast, imports from Africa (7.4% vs. 22.2%) and Latam(24.9% vs. 31.6%) softened. April trade data suggest the export engine of China’s K-shaped economy is stillrunning strongly.Resilient manufacturing exports withstand geopoliticaluncertainty well, in contrast to the sluggish domestic demand as reflected in therecent Labor Day holiday data. If anything, the oil shock boosted demand forChinese EV and green-tech products for now. As a key player in global tech supplychains, China also benefited from the strong AI capex cycle. Energy imports werestill limited by the Middle East situation, though manageable. With the externalstrength and the sanguine tone from the April Politburo meeting, we see littlechance o