2026年中国电力市场展望：市场参与者的十大主要趋势

2026 China Power MarketOutlook: 10 Key Trends forMarket Players Authors and Acknowledgments Authors Zihao ChenShuo GaoYi JiangTing LiYujing LiuZiyi LiuJialin TianLiyue Zhang Authors listed alphabetically. All authors from RMI unless otherwise noted. Contacts Shuo Gao,sgao@rmi.org Copyrights and Citation Shuo Gao, et al.,2026 China Power Market Outlook: 10 Key Trends for Market Players, RMI, 2026, https://rmi.org/resources/2026-china-power-market-outlook/. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted. About RMI Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access toaffordable clean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’slivelihoods. RMI is active in over 50 countries. Table of Contents Executive Summary................................................................................7 1.Provincial power spot markets now cover nearly all provinces, with spotprices emerging as the pricing anchor for medium- to long-term powerand retail markets..........................................................................10 Average spot prices continue to fall, and regional differentiation is becomingmore pronounced............................................................................................................10Spot prices are strengthening time-of-use price signals and enabling moregranulartransactionsin medium- to long-termand retail markets...............................13 2.Time-segmented M2L trading has become widespread, with intradayprice differentials constrained by trading price limits in some regions.14 Time-segmented M2L transactions have becomewidespread,and the transactionprice is gradually decoupling from administrative time-of-use (TOU) pricing................14For time-segmented trading, the price limit for long-term cycles is set at the coal powerbenchmark price ±20%, while for short-term cycles it closely follows the spot market limit.15Due to trading price limits, intraday peak-to-valley price fluctuations in M2L time-segmented transactions are limited in certain regions....................................................15 3.Wholesale-retail price pass-through strengthens, and retail-side use ofmarket-based TOU electricity pricing accelerates..............................17 Retail packages align more closely with the wholesale market, better reflecting theaverage wholesale market price......................................................................................17Retail TOU pricing is gradually transitioning to a market-based model, but progressdiffers by region................................................................................................................18Regions adopt measures to mitigate electricity price risk to users.................................20 4.Mechanism pricing has been implemented nationwide,withnotable disparitiesemergingin regional implementation plans,biddingoutcomes,and settlement expenses across regions..............23 All regions nationwide have rolled out bidding for renewable mechanism pricing,with significant differences in bidding plans and results................................................23Nationwide, industrial and commercial power users are paying widely different ratesunder mechanism pricing................................................................................................27 5.The capacity pricing mechanism is expanding to include more types ofgeneration-side entities, with the compensation depending on peak-serving capability...........................................................................29 Under a unified national framework, the differences in details regarding capacitycalculation, unit price calculation, and performance assessment across differentprovinces will affect the actual capacity revenue level of operating entities..................30Capacity revenue accounts for a growing share of generation revenue, while newermechanisms increasingly reward peak-serving capability..............................................33 6.Capacity-based transmission and distribution tariffs represent asignificant policy development, while system operation fees play agrowing role in the overall electricity price structure.........................34 A capacity-based transmission and distribution tariffs model is esta