2025年中国电力市场展望：市场参与者的10大关键趋势

Report / June 2025 Authors and AcknowledgmentsAuthorsZihao ChenShuo GaoYi JiangTing LiYujing LiuZiyi LiuJialin TianJun XieLiyue ZhangAuthors listed alphabetically. All authors from RMI unless otherwise noted.ContactsShuo Gao,sgao@rmi.orgCopyrights and CitationShuo Gao et al.,2025 China Power Market Outlook: 10 Key Trends for Market Players, RMI, 2025,https://rmi.org/insight/2025-china-power-market-outlook/.RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted. About RMIRocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access to affordableclean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’s livelihoods. RMIis active in over 60 countries. ReRport /Joun205oAJ5h0solisdnnhaobeoc0yo.50/fmoMn5oAJ5h0soudJy05mTable of ContentsExecutive Summary......................................................................... 7Spot Markets1Twenty-nine provincial grids are (trial) operating power spotmarkets, with spot prices falling due to lower coal price,more renewables, and looser supply-demand balance................. 10By the end of 2025, China will “achieve basic full coverage of provincial spot markets”......... 10Spot prices in most provinces dropped in 2024, and the downward trend is expectedto persist in 2025.............................................................................................................. 11Medium- to Long-Term Transactions2Buyers now have greater flexibility in allocating shares across M2Ltransactions, whose prices closely follow thermal coal and spotmarket trends.......................................................................... 15In the wholesale market, limits on annual contract shares have been relaxed, allowingmore flexibility for generators and consumers to negotiate transaction proportions............ 15Prices for monthly M2L transactions follow thermal coal price trends.................................. 16Time-segmented M2L transactions continue to evolve, increasingly reflecting spotmarket price signals......................................................................................................... 17Conventional Generators3Capacity pricing restructures the revenue stream of conventionalpower plants; a new capacity tariff adjustment could further lowerthermal power’s capacity factor................................................ 19In the first year of coal power capacity pricing implementation, both the generation-siderevenue model and the user-side price structure transitioned smoothly.............................. 19The capacity tariff is expected to adjust in 2026, making more room for the reductionof coal power capacity factor............................................................................................ 22Renewables4Renewable generation fully entering the market, with over-the-counter pricing mechanisms playing a key transitional role......... 23On-grid renewable generation is moving into a new market phase....................................... 23In the short term, Document #136 has a greater impact on fostering the interactionbetween user-side renewables and storage than it does on the generation side.................... 25 ReRport /Joun205oAJ5h0solisdnnhaobeoc0yo.50/fmoMn5oAJ5h0soudJy05mDistributed Energy5Grid connection challenge requires that distributed PV prioritizeon-site consumption, leading to uncertainty in returns............... 28Distributed PV sees expansion across coastal provinces with high electricity demand,with sharp drop in residential installations........................................................................ 28China releases tighter regulation for distributed PV with emphasis on on-site consumption... 29Accelerated market integration of distributed PV increases uncertainty around returns....... 30Stand-alone Storage6Stand-alone energy storage: core revenue from energy marketarbitrage, with frequency regulation and capacity earningssensitive to market and policy shifts.......................................... 31Diversified revenue for stand-alone storage is driven by ancillary services and capacitymechanisms, while energy market arbitrage still leads....................................................... 31Stand-alone energy storage revenue is sensitive to evolving ancillary service and capacitymechanism rules.............................................