2026年展望与十大宏观趋势

December 16, 2025 Contents Aboutthisdocument The monthly brief is intended to inform executiveteams, boards andinvestors on the state of the economy. It has been prepared based on dataas ofDecember 10,2025. Executive summary2026 economic outlookTop 10 macro trends for companies050817 Each brief includesa summary of global business-relevant macroeconomicdevelopments, and a set of indicators that track the overall health of theeconomy, business activity and consumers. Read our latest point of views: See our recent monthly macro briefs:October: Navigating two-speed economiesSeptember: Tariff updateJuly: Fiscal power playsJune: Immigration at a crossroadsMay: Consumer spending in flux For more information about Macro Foresight, visitwww.accenture.com/macroforesight. Anotetoourreaders: “2025wasatumultuousyear,markedbyuncharacteristicallyhigheconomicandpolicyuncertainty,geopoliticaltensions,andrapidtechnologicalchange.MostexecutivesandboardroomswereconsumedbyuncertaintyaroundtheshiftinUStradepoliciesandtheescalationofUS-Chinatensions.TherapidaccelerationinAIcapexinvestmentswasanotherkeyfeatureofthelandscape,contributingtoeconomicresilienceandpropellingequitymarkets. Aswepivotto2026,someofthepolicyuncertaintywillsubsidebutthelaggedimpactsofthedecisionstakenin2025willonlyintensify.Companiesshouldplanformodest,albeituneven,economicgrowthandastill-challengedbusinessenvironment.GrowthwillincreasinglydivergebetweenAI“winners”and“losers”,whiletradepolicywillcontinuetorecalibratevaluechains.Inaddition,weexpecttoseefurthercompetitivepressuresgloballyfromChinaasitsexport-ledgrowthpushsuppressespricesandeatsintothemarketshareofforeignrivals. Chris TomsovicGlobal LeadMacro ForesightLondon, UK Thereareafewkeythemesthatcutacrossoureconomicoutlookandtop10macrotrendsfor2026,including: •AI:Thiswillfactorintoalmosteverycorporatedecision.MuchoftheeconomicgrowthweexpectnextyearwillbepredicatedonthegrowingadoptionofAI.Atthesametime,geostrategiccompetitionforAIandcallsfortechnologysovereigntywillonlyintensify.•Affordabilitychallenges:Manyconsumersarebucklingunderthepressureofyearsofpersistentinflation.Weseethistrendcontinuingandinfluencinghowconsumerslive,consume,andmobilizepolitically.•Geoeconomicfragmentation:Geopoliticsandtherealignmentsinglobaltradeandsupplychainstheyaretriggeringwereakeydisruptiveforcein2025.Weseetheinfluenceofgeopoliticspersistingin2026andshapingregionaloutlooks(e.g.,Europeancompetitiveness)aswellassectoraldynamics(e.g.,investmentsinAI,gridinfrastructure,defense). Nick KojucharovAmericas LeadMacro ForesightSan Francisco, USA Inthistimeofuncertaintyandrapidchange,weadviseexecutiveteamstocontinuetofocusontwofundamentalpriorities: •First,adoptingAIacrosstheirenterprisesandidentifyingwaystoreinventamidstthesignificantchangesintheexternalenvironment.Wewillseereinventionatplayacrosscountlessindustries—whetheritisautomotivecompaniesadaptingtointenseChinesecompetitionorretailandmediacompaniesadaptingtotherapidconsumerusageofAIineverydaysituations. •Second,strengtheningenterpriseresiliencegiventhewiderangeofpotentialeconomic,geopoliticalandclimateshocks.Resilienceshouldcovercommercial,workforce,technology,andoperations.Embracinga“resiliencefirst”mindsetwillbekey. Theotherkeyskillsetswhichcompanieswillneedtomasterrelatetoscenarioplanningandforesightgiventhehigheconomicuncertaintythatwillpersistin2026. Finally,wewanttothankallouravidandloyalreaders.Wecontinuetovalueyourfeedbackandinteractions,andwewishyouasuccessfulyearahead.” Anotetoourreaders:Macro Foresight is focused on helping companies develop strategic plans in response to the changingmacro environment—reach out if you would like to learn moreMacro Foresight platform •MacroForesighthelps companies develop strategic plans in response tocomplicated economic, financial and geopolitical shifts in the externalenvironment •Ourplatformleverages Agentic AI to support: –Trend and event monitoring–Interpretation of events and implications for strategic planning–Scenario planning activities •The team also leverages capabilities across: –Accenture’s deep industry expertise–Corporate Strategy & Growth–Deep third-party network of policy advisors across Washington DC,London, Brussels, and Beijing •Reach out if you would like to know more about our Macro Foresightplatform and subscription models Executive summary The unevenness and fragility of global growth is set to increase in 2026 amidst rising geo-economicfragmentation, China competitive pressures, and potential AI capex moderationExecutive Summary (1/2) •2025hasbeenmarkedbyhighpolicyuncertainty,geopoliticalfrictions,andtariffandmarketvolatility.Despitetheseheadwinds,theglobaleconomyprovedsurprisinglyresilient,helpedbycontinueddisinflation,demand-frontloadinginresponsetotariffs,cautiouscentralbankratecuts,andtheramp-upinAI-relatedinvestment.Atthesametime,divergencesbecameincreasinglyapparent,asmanyexport-oriented,manufacturing-heavyandfiscally-andfinancially-constrainedeconomiescontinuedtostruggle