高通（QCOM）2026财年第三季度复盘：多元化还是摊薄？

+12135595917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target +1 917344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com OQCOM +1212845 7839eva.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Qualcomm (QCOM): FQ326 recap - Diversified or dilutive? QCOMFQ326results wereOK($9.9B/$2.21vsStreetat $9.6B/$2.21)with solid revenuesbut weakermargins.QCTwasabove ($8.5BvsStreet at$8.3B),withHandsets andAutoaboveexpectationsandloTabitbelow;QTLwasatouchabove($1.28BvsStreetat$1.25B) CloseDate29Jul2026QCOM Close Price (USD)155.68Price Target (USD)165.00Upside/(Downside)6%52-WeekRange259.92/121.99SPX7,316.15SepDiv Yield2.4%Market Cap (USD) (M)167,200EV (USD) (M)172,671PerformanceYTD6M12M But whileFQ426guidance beat on revenues EPSmissed ($10.1B/$2.15vs Street $10.0B/$2.36).QCTguidanceof$8.7Bwasabitabove Street($8.6B),with stronger handsets onChina Android recovery (which did bottom as expected in the quarter), weaker loT, and strongAutomotive.QTLof~$1.3B was a touch above Street($1.28B).However,chipset marginsare coming in low with gross margin compression as higher input costs weigh. This was a very messy quarter for Qualcomm. Cost increases and higher spendingare significantly impacting margins, and while the company is trying to raise prices toaction (with management suggesting further degradation into FY27 on our callback).rapidly than expected; while we would ordinarily not care (or even approve) we worry that therapid nature of the move also proves out the capabilities of their own modemproducts,andraises the spectre of AAPL's impending QTL license expiration in April. Wecan see potential here as non-handset businesses startto dominate overphones overthenext several years.However,there are clearlya hostof potential negative catalysts(smartphone industry headwinds, margin trajectories, AAPL licensing and relationship etc)that need tobe navigated first,and whileshares appearcheapbothnumbers and multiplesprobably need to come down until those things pass. Welowerestimates,anddropmultiplefrom 20xP/FEto15xon uncertaindynamics,loweringour pricetargetfrom$235to$165(15xP/FEonournewFY27E/FY28EaverageEPS of $11.14). We maintain our Market-Perform rating. InvestmentImplications QcoM (MP,$165):Thediversification story is real buta number ofnear-term headwinds(smartphone memory dynamics,margins,AAPL etc) need to be navigated first. QCOMFQ326resultswereOK($9.9B/$2.21vsStreetat$9.6B/$2.21)withrevenuesbeatingconsensusbutwith EPSinlineonslightlyweakermargins.QcTcameinaboveexpectations($8.5BvsStreetat$8.3B),withHandsetsandAutoaboveexpectationsandloTabitbelow.QTLrevenueswereatouchaboveexpectations($1.28BvsStreetat$1.25B).Opexwasslightlyhigherthanconsensus($2.59BvsStreetat$2.58B), $9.6B/$2.21)andatouchbetterthanFQ3guidance ($9.6B/$2.20) (Exhibit 1) Auto above expectations and loT a bit below.(Exhibit2).QCT EBT was $2,192M, with margins of 25.8%,a touch belowguidance (~26%) and the street(25.9%). down 16% QoQ, though above consensus at $4.96B)as OEMs remained cautious on handset builds given the challengingmemoryindustrydynamics.Automotiverevenuesof$1.59B (up61%YoYandup20%QoQ)wereaboveconsensusonstrong demand and increasing compute content per vehicle.loT revenuesof $1.83B (up9%YoYandup 6%QoQ)wasslightly below consensus at $1.84B (Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4). QTLrevenuesof$1,278Mwereaboveconsensus($1,253M)andguidance($1,250M).QTLEBTof$881Mandsegmentmarginsof68.9%wereabovethe Streetontoplineandbelowonmargins(Streetat $864Mand69.2%) :Non-GAAPoperatingexpenseswere$2,593Minthequarter(up~3%QoQ),slightlyhigherthanconsensusof$2,580Mbut below guidance of $2,600M (Exhibit 8). $10.0B/$2.36).QcTguidanceof$8.7BwasabitabovetheStreet($8.6B),withhandsetsseenaboveconsensusonChinaAndroidoEMrecovery (whichdidbottomas expected inthe quarter),loT seenbelow,andAutomotiveseenwellabove.QTLrevenueswereguidedup~2%QoQto~$1.3B,slightlyabovetheStreet($1.28B).However,chipsetmarginsarecominginlowwithgrossmargincompressionashigherinputcostsweigh.ThecompanysuggestedDec-QrevenueswouldbeupslightlyQoQ,withsequentialgrowth inAndroidandtheDatacenterrampoffsetbyameaningful step-down inAAPLrevenues (largerthan previously anticipated). FQ4 sales were guided to $9.7B-$10.5B (midpoint at $10.1B),a bit above consensus at $10.0B (Exhibit 5) onrecovery in Androidrevenuesas China OEMs seemeaningful sequential growth (salesbottomed inthequarteras expected),constraints. QcTrevenueswereguidedto$8.4B-$9.0B (midpoint$8.7B),up~2%sequentiallyandabitaboveconsensusat$8.6B(Exhibit5).Handsetsareseen~$5.2B(up~2% QoQ,and down~25%YoY)above the Streetat~$5.0Bandus ($5.0B)withsequential growth in Android off theFQ3 bottom (with revenues from China OEMs growing double-digits % QoQ), offset bylowerthanexpectedAAPLrevenues.loTisseenflatYoY,impliedat~$1.8B,belowtheStreet(at$1.99B)andus($1.86B)with double-digit growth across industrial, networking and robotics,offset by memory constraints ontablets and otherconsumerproducts.Autois expectedbe up~60%YoY,impliedup~6%Qo