高通(QCOM)：剥洋葱？2025财年四季报前瞻

Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target QCOM Qualcomm (QCOM): Peeling the onion? FQ425 preview Qualcomm reports FQ425 earnings on Wednesday, November 5th, after the market close (callat 4:45pm ET; dial-in (877) 407-0832 or (201) 689-8433, passcode 13756092). We tweak numbers, with slightly stronger assumptions around handsets given recent trendsand a bit less share moving to AAPL in the near term given AAPL’s mix around new productsthis cycle. We now model Sep-Q (FQ425) at $10.97B/$2.93, up from prior $10.70/$2.85, abit above consensus ($10.74B/$2.85) and guidance ($10.7B/$2.85). We now model Dec-Q(FQ126) at $11.7B/$3.23, up from $11.4B/$3.17 prior, above consensus on revenue and atouch below on EPS (Street at $11.6B/$3.25). For full-year FY26 (next year) we now model$44.0B/$11.65 vs $43.6B/$11.55 prior, below consensus (Street at $44.6B/$12.10). Qualcomm has remained out of favor amid general distaste of smartphones, tariff concerns,AAPL rolloff etc, and the shares, while at least outperforming the S&P over the last severalmonths have continued to lag the semi sector. However, smartphone shipments have actuallybeen OK, new AAPL-internal products appear to be seeing less than expected traction, tarifffears have receded somewhat (and this weekend’s China deal appears to remove somerecent antitrust actions), and (more recently) as the company has tried to spin a more robustAI narrative. We understand the overall concerns investors tend to have on the name including aperceived lack of catalysts, and numbers next year still look high to us amid AAPL roll-off andSamsung Exynos shifts (we would watch March-Q commentary as a result for example). Andyet even with those we still believe there is value to be had under the surface as headwindsstart to peel away, with an objectively strong product portfolio and an adjacency story thatlooks increasing real (with an emerging AI story to boot) that should become more and moreobvious as AAPL winds out of the numbers over time, with valuation (in our opinion) more thanreflective with the stock a ~40% discount to the S&P and a >50% discount to the SOX. Westill think the name is worth a look. Outperform, $185 PT. Investment Implications QCOM (Outperform, $185 PT): AAPL headwinds are known, the product portfolio isstronger than ever, option value exists, and the shares remain inexpensive. DETAILS Please click here for our most recent QCOM model: model. Qualcomm reports FQ425 earnings on Wednesday, November 5th, after the market close (call at 4:45pm ET; dial-in (877)407-0832 or (201) 689-8433, passcode 13756092). We tweak numbers, with slightly stronger assumptions around handsets and a bit less share moving to AAPL in thenear term given AAPL’s mix around new products this cycle. We now model Sep-Q (FQ425) at $10.97B/$2.93, upfrom prior $10.70/$2.85, a bit above consensus ($10.74B/$2.85) and guidance ($10.7B/$2.85). We now model Dec-Q (FQ126) at $11.7B/$3.23, up from $11.4B/$3.17 prior, and above consensus on revenue and a touch below on EPS(Street at $11.6B/$3.25. For full-year FY26 we now model $44.0B/$11.65 vs $43.6B/$11.55 prior, below consensus(Street at $44.6B/$12.10). •We are tweaking numbers, with slightly stronger assumptions around handsets and a bit less share moving to AAPL in thenear term given AAPL’s mix around their new products this cycle. A summary of our changes can be found inExhibit 1andExhibit 2. •We now model Sep-Q (FQ425) at $10.97B/$2.93, up from prior $10.70/$2.85, above consensus ($10.74B/$2.85) andguidance ($10.7B/$2.85) (Exhibit 3,Exhibit 4). •We model Sep-Q QCT revenue at $9.5B, above Bloomberg consensus and guidance of $9.3B (Exhibit 4). We model Sep-Q QTL revenue at $1.39B, above guidance of $1.35B and Bloomberg consensus of $1.36B (Exhibit 4). •We now model Dec-Q (FQ126) at $11.7B/$3.23, up from $11.4B/$3.17 prior, and above consensus on revenue and atouch below on EPS (Street at $11.6B/$3.25 (Exhibit 5). We model QCT revenues at ~$10.1B vs Bloomberg consensus at ~$10.1B, and QTL revenues at $1.54B vs Street at $1.48B (Exhibit 5). •For the full-year FY25 we now model $43.8B/$11.96 vs $43.6B/$11.88 prior, above consensus (Street at $43.7B/$11.92). For full-year FY26 we now model $44.0B/$11.65 vs $43.6B/$11.55 prior, below consensus (Street at $44.6B/$12.10) (Exhibit 6). •We note that overall AAPL remains a sizable customer, wit AAPL chipsets likely representing $2.50 in earnings or so (Exhibit7), and we are now reaching the point where volumes should start to step down. However, it appears that among the newlaunches sell-through has been more recently dominated by the 17 / 17 Pro / 17 Pro Max, with Air volumes (that containAAPL’s own cellular silicon) at this point relatively muted (Exhibit 8), hence this (coupled to AAPLs overall strength) couldprovide some near-term upside to Qualcomm’s numbers, and we have bumped up ou