高通（QCOM US）：持有：多元化拓展至数据中心

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(USD)170.00SHARE PRICE(USD)155.41(as of09 Jun 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)Market cap(USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year toHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesFrank Lee*Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6916Pulkit Aggarwal*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesSemiconductors & EquipmentUnited States06/24Target price: 170.00High: 227.09 Low: 124.66 Current: 155.41 Find out morePREVIOUS TARGET(USD)170.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+9.4%169,216Free float99%169,216BBGQCOM US1,285RICQCOM.OQ09/2024a09/2025e09/2026e09/2027e10.2211.4711.8312.7410.2211.4711.8312.740.00.00.00.010.0911.7011.5511.7615.213.613.112.22.12.32.42.514.511.710.79.648.347.044.944.5110.00175.00240.0012/2406/25 ◆◆◆ 2Financial statementsYear to09/2024a09/2025e09/2026eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue38,96143,65344,756EBITDA11,77614,14715,005Depreciation & amortisation-1,706-1,911-1,960Operating profit/EBIT10,07012,23513,045Net interest-696-652-609PBT10,33612,27013,029HSBC PBT13,28515,05014,845Taxation-227-1,522-1,824Net profit10,14210,74811,205HSBC net profit11,54612,80313,209Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations12,20215,75715,053Capex-1,041-1,166-1,196Cash flowfrom investment-3,623-1,206-1,236Dividends-3,687-3,871-4,113Change in net debt-2,740-5,629-4,653FCF equity11,16114,59113,857Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets12,04311,39310,727Tangible fixed assets4,6654,5704,472Current assets25,23127,27331,192Cash & others13,30018,01521,754Total assets55,15456,49159,686Operating liabilities14,24614,50616,358Gross debt14,63413,72012,806Net debt1,334-4,295-8,948Shareholders' funds26,27428,26530,522Invested capital14,39310,7158,280Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to09/2024a09/2025e09/2026eY-o-y %changeRevenue8.812.02.5EBITDA22.720.16.1Operating profit29.321.56.6PBT38.918.76.2HSBC EPS21.312.23.2Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)2.73.54.7ROIC69.085.4118.1ROE48.347.044.9ROA20.320.320.2EBITDA margin30.232.433.5Operating profit margin25.828.029.1EBITDA/net interest (x)16.921.724.7Net debt/equity5.1-15.2-29.3Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.1-0.3-0.6CF fromoperations/net debt914.7Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)8.989.6310.04HSBC EPS (diluted)10.2211.4711.83DPS3.303.513.73Book value23.5425.6027.65Financials & valuation:Qualcomm Valuation and risksValuationMethodology:FY25etarget PE multiple.Assumptions:Target FY25e PEmultiple of 15x(unchanged)applied toFY25e EPS of USD11.47(unchanged).Ourtarget PE multipleof15xisa10% premium to its 5-year historicalaverage PE. We believe a 10% premium is justified given Qualcomm’s limitedUS exposure and low AI exposure whichcanhelp mitigate some of thetariff-related uncertainty.Our TP of USD170.00(unchanged)impliesc9% upside.We retain our Holdrating as we do not see any near-term upside catalysts amid mutedFY25earnings growth expectations. Risksto our viewUpside risks:1)Higher-than-expected AI PCASP; 2) smartphone replacement cycle driven byAI smartphones; and 3) higher-than-expectedSnapdragon Gen-4 ASP.Downside risks:1) Weaker-than-expectedsmartphone demand; 2) slowdown inautosdemand;and3) increasing geopolitical tensionsbetween the US and China. Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe followinganalyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s)of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Frank LeeImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision tobuy or sell a stock shoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratingsshould not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice.