高通（QCOM）：2026财年第二季度回顾 - 希望他们能在6月呈现一场精彩的表现

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target QCOM 140.00 USD Qualcomm (QCOM): FQ226 recap - We hope they put on a goodshow in June... QCOM’s FQ126 results were ok ($10.6B/$2.65 vs Street at $10.6B/$2.55). QCT was below($9.08B vs Street at $9.13B) with auto strength offset by handset and IoT weakness; QTLwas above ($1.38B vs the Street at $1.32B) on favorable mix. However, FQ326 guidancewas extremely weak ($9.6B/$2.20 vs Street $10.3B/$2.43) with QCT seen well below($8.2B vs Street $8.8B) on poor handsets given Chinese chipset inventory reductions.However, the company suggested China revenues will bottom in FQ3 (though offset by theshare reduction in the new Apple launches as that business begins to roll off in earnest). Close Date29 Apr 2026QCOM Close Price (USD)156.00Price Target (USD)140.00Upside/(Downside)(10)%52-Week Range205.95/121.99SPX7,135.95FYESepDiv Yield2.4%Market Cap (USD) (M)166,452EV (USD) (M)169,447 Overall we have been concerned over the prospect for a deteriorating smartphone marketsignificantly impacting numbers that we thought were much too high, and indeed this seemsto be happening. And yet, the shares reversed sharply following the release (now up ~13%as of this writing) on (of all things) datacenter hopes, with the company disclosing a “leadinghyperscaler custom silicon engagement,” for which we will learn more at the analyst day inJune. So is datacenter enough? These days a narrative goes a long way so who knows. That beingsaid, information on exactly what this ASIC product is seems to be (deliberately) lacking fornow, and will undoubtedly start small (most ASIC vendors take years to ramp to anythingmeaningful and QCOM will be a late entry to the space), so they will need to sell a dream atthe analyst day. In the meantime the core business appears to be under substantial pressure,and the company may be setting themselves up for another miss given their bottomingcommentary (which feels optimistic to us) with further risks into 2027 (Samsung share, AAPLlicensing etc) possible. We hope they put on a good show in June… We get the desire to play the datacenter story here but there may be better ways to doit, frankly one could also buy NVDA or AVGO (actual datacenter stories) at likely cheaperreal valuations, with numbers going up instead of down...Our estimates move marginally;maintaining our $140 PT and MP rating. Investment Implications QCOM (MP, $140): Memory headwinds appear likely to pressure smartphone builds andnumbers appear high; we shall see if datacenter dream is enough to attract buyers. DETAILS Our updated QCOM model can be found here: QCOM / Qualcomm Inc QCOM’s FQ126 results were ok ($10.6B/$2.65 vs Street at $10.6B/$2.55) with revenues mostly inline and EPS abit above. QCT was below the street ($9.08B vs Street at $9.13B), with handsets and IoT below expectations andAutomotive a bit above. QTL revenues were above expectations ($1.38B vs the Street at $1.32B) on favorable mixwith global handset shipments flat YoY. Opex control was solid as well. •Non-GAAP sales of $10.6B and EPS of $2.65m with revenue mostly inline and EPS above(Street at $10.6B/$2.55)with EPS at the high end of FQ2 guidance ($10.6B/$2.55) (Exhibit 1). •QCT revenues of $9,076M were below the Street (consensus at $9,135M) and a touch below guidance ($9.1B),withhandsets below expectations, IoT also below, and auto above (Exhibit 2). QCT EBT was $2,465M, with margins of ~27.2%, inline with guidance (~27%) and the street at 27.3%. •QCT revenues were down ~4% YoY and down ~14% QoQwithHandset revenues of $6.02B (down 13% YoY anddown 23% QoQ), as OEMs remained cautious on handset builds given the challenging memory industry dynamics, withresults below consensus at $6.06B.Automotive revenues of $1,326M (up 38% YoY and up 20% QoQ), were a bit aboveconsensus expectations at $1,302M on continued adoption of the Snapdragon digital chassis platform and ADAS launchesto their 4thgeneration chipsets.IoT sales of $1.73B (up 9% YoY and up 2% QoQ)was below consensus at $1.78B withmanagement noting memory constraints impacting some of the consumer exposed areas of IoT (Exhibit 3,Exhibit 4). •QTL revenues of $1,382Mwere above consensus ($1,323) and above guidance ($1.3B) on favorable mix as smartphoneshipments were flattish YoY. QTL EBT was $994M, with segment margins at ~71.9% (Exhibit 7), and mostly inline withguidance at 70%. •Non-GAAP operating expenses were $2,514M in the quarter(up ~7% QoQ), below consensus of $2,578M andguidance of $2,600M (Exhibit 8). However, FQ326 guidance was extremely weak ($9.6B/$2.20 vs Street $10.3B/$2.43) amid continued inventorydraw-downs at handset customers given the challenging memory industry dynamics, with QCT guidance of $8.2Bsignificantly below the Street ($8.8B). Handsets are seen well below consens