苹果公司2026财年第二季度：库克的最后胜利之旅？

april.li@bernsteinsg.comPhoebeSun phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com AAPL Apple FQ2'26: Cook's final victory lap? Apple'sFQ2resultsbeatestimates.Revenue of$111.2Bgrew17%YoYand came in above the highend ofguidance.FX was a~2.5%tailwind.iPhone $57B(+22%),Services$31B (+16%), Mac $8.4B (+6%),iPad $6.9B (+8%), Wearables/Home/Acc.$7.9B (+5%);EPS $2.01 (+22%). Gross margin came in at 49.3% also above the high end of estimates dueEPScameinat$2.01(2%aboveusandconsensus). price inflation. Revenue guided to grow 14-17% YoY, significantly beating expectationsimplying strong YoY unit growth in iPhones and Macs to continue despite some supplybottlenecks.We seeApplecontinuingto take share particularly in smartphones andPCs as Apple weathers this storm better than rivals. Gross margin guidance of 48% in themid-point reflects 13Obps QoQ decline due mostly to memory price inflation. giving significant detail. We believe this will be the next major catalyst forthe stock. Net cash neutral target is formallyretired.Apple is"no longer providing net cash neutralas a formal target"and will"independently evaluate cash and debt"CFO Kevan framed thechangeas a capital structure refinement,nota capital return shift:evaluating cash anddebtindependentlyletsApple"makemoreoptimaleconomicdecisions"aroundhowitutilizesitsdebtandcashportfolios.Droppingthecash-neutral commitmentgivesmanagementgreaterflexibilitythroughthe Cook-to-Ternustransition,toactopportunisticallyto eitheradjustcashand debt levels independently depending on prevailing interest rates,buyback more stock,orbuild cashbufferfor other needs.Managementreaffirmed its shareholderreturnpolicyandannouncedanewsioobnsharebuybackauthorization margin expansion while memory cost inflation is now an explicit and growing margin headwind that management is openlytelegraphing into FY27.The bigger structural news: Apple formally retired its net-cash-neutral target, raised the dividend 4%,and authorized another $100B in buybacks-reframing the capital structure heading into the Cook-Ternus transition. (+22%), Services $31B (+16%), Mac $8.4B (+6%),iPad $6.9B (+8%), Wearables/Home/Acc.$7.9B (+5%); EPS $2.01(+22%); operating cash flow $28.7B. seasonal de-leverage and higher memory costs. Tim clarified that GM stll absorbed tariff costs in the quarter, but tariffs werelowervs.December. .Total revenue+14%to+17%Y/Y (massivelyabove thelow-to-mid singledigit pace they were guiding onprior quarters).:Gross margin47.5%-48.5% (down from 49.3% in Q2-implies sequential pressure, likelymemory costflow-through).Services growth in June~similarto March's underlying rateex-FX(FX wasa2.5pttotal-companytailwindinMarch). Guide assumes current global tariff rates and policies holdand thatthemacro outlook does not worsen.TheGM guide of47.5-48.5% implies~80-180bpsof sequentialcompression off the 49.3% print-squarelythememoryheadwindthecompany is flagging, which will be partially offset by cost-saving from other components. Net cash neutraltarget is formally retired. Apple is"no longer providing net cash neutral as a formal target"and will"independently evaluatecashand debt"CFO Kevan framed the change as acapital structurerefinement,nota capital returnshift: evaluating cash and debt independently lets Apple"makemore optimal economic decisions"aroundhow itutilizes itsdebt and cash portfolios based on business factors and market conditions, while remaining disciplined and continuing to returnexcesscash. Dropping thecash-neutral commitmentgives management greaterflexibilitythrough theCook-to-Ternus transition,to act opportunistically rather than mechanically running down net cash, and preserve dry powder for larger Al and siliconinvestmentsorpotentialM&A.Importantly,Kevanreiteratedthecommitmenttoreturningexcesscapital,withthemorethan$1ooB authorization serving as a clear proof point.As such,this is nota negativefor the buyback story, but it does removetheforcingfunctionthathasgovernedthepaceofcapitalreturnssince2O18. References to"Bernstein" or the"Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between BernsteinandSocieteGenerale otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates" relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. RISKS Apple Inc The biggest risks to the downside on Apple and to our price target are that: 1) Apple falls too far behind in Gen Al, and ultimatelysees its ecosystem disrupted by Al native competitors; 2) Emergence of new form factors cause the smartphone to decline inrelevance, eroding Apple's moat and ecosystem as a consequence; 3) Escalation in US-China tensions disrupt