2026财年第二季度业绩符合预期，AI和数据云长期前景保持稳定

Inline 2QFY26 results; intact long-term outlookfor AI and data cloud Target PriceUS$388.00Up/Downside59.0%Current PriceUS$244.01 Salesforcereported 2QFY26results: total revenue was up by 10% YoY toUS$10.2bn, and non-GAAP net income grew by 12%% YoY to US$2.8bn, bothlargelyin line withBloombergconsensus estimate. cRPO grew by 11% YoY toUS$29.4bn, c.100bps ahead of the guidance, mainly thanks to strong salesexecutionin both small and mid-market segments.Management guided3QFY26 total revenue to increase by 8-9% to US$10.24-10.29bn, in line withconsensus (US$10.29bn); and also raiseFY26OCFgrowth guidance toc.12%-13%YoY (previous:+10-11% YoY) driven by cash tax savings. AI momentumcontinued, withData Cloud and AIARR up by c.120%YoY in 2QFY26. Wemaintain our FY26-28E earningsforecastlargely unchanged, and also keep ourtarget price of US$388.0 based on 21x FY26E EV/EBITDA.Investors' concernsabout AI disrupting the enterprise SaaS business model are weighing on short-term sentiment.That said, we remain positive on Salesforce’s value proposition,supported by its data cloud infra and Agentforce solutions. Maintain BUY. USSoftware & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk 2QFY26 cRPO ahead ofprevious guidance.cRPOgrew by11% YoY in2QFY26, 1% aheadof previous guidance,mainly driven by 1) strongperformance in the small and mid-market businesses; 2) strong salesexecutionin technology,communication and media sectors.Sales/service/platform& other/marketing & commerce/integration& analyticscloud revenuewas upby9/9/17/4/13% YoY in2QFY26.For 3QFY26E,managementguidedcRPO to grow by slightly above 10%YoY, and totalrevenue to grow by 8-9% YoY, both in line with consensusestimate. Stock Data Solid AI businessmomentum.Data Cloud & AI ARR was over US$1.2bnin 2QFY26, up by 120% YoY and c.20% QoQ.The companyhasclosed12,500Agentforcedeals since its launch,of which 6,000 are paid. Theconsumption model showed strong momentum: 1) over 40% of theDataCloud and Agentforce bookingsin 2QFY26came from existing customerexpansion; 2) Flex Credits accounted for 80% of Agentforce new bookingsin 2QFY26. The company also leverages AI to improve its ownefficiency.Agentforcehas handled 1.4mn customer support conversations ofSalesforcewith a 77% resolution rate, leading to meaningful reductionsinservicesupportheadcount. Exploring public sector and ITSMopportunities.The company alsoactively pursuesnew opportunities in the public sector and ITSM business.Itplans to launch agentic IT service platform at Dreamforce,a yearly techevent hostedby Salesforce,in October,integrating agentic IT servicecapabilitiesand Slack.We expect its solution to better address theunderserved IT service demand from SMBs,supported by its 1mn customerbase ofSlack and agentic capabilities. Source: FactSet Expanding margin and shareholder return.ManagementraisedFY26Enon-GAAP OPM guidance by 10bps to 34.1% (+1.1ppt YoY), thanks to theefficiencygains andrestructuring. The company returned US$2.6bn (c.1%of mkt cap) to shareholders in 2QFY26, andannounced US$20bn increaseto itsshare repurchase program, bringing the total authorized toUS$50bn. Business forecasts update and valuation Valuation We value Salesforce at US$388.0per share based on21x FY26E EV/EBITDA.Our targetEV/EBITDA is at a discount to the sector average (27x), given Salesforce earnings growthhas entered a more mature stage. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or inpart, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark ov