科技：苹果2026财年第一财季及业绩指引超预期；看好强劲的iPhone周期和谷歌AI，尽管内存承压

strong iPhone cycle and GoogleAI despite memory headwinds Apple FY1Q26and guidancebeat;PositiveonstrongiPhone cycleand Google AIdespitememoryheadwinds Apple (AAPL US, NR)reported upbeat FY1Q26 (CY4Q25) resultswithrevenuegrowthof16% YoY, 4% above consensus, driven bystrong iPhone sales(+23%YoY) and Chinarecovery(+38% YoY, vs-4% in FY4Q), whileGPMfurtherexpandedto 48.2%thanks tofavourable mix and leverage. For FY2Q26E, mgmt.guided revenue growth of 13-16%YoYandresilientGPM of 48-49%despitememory headwinds.Looking into2026, weexpect “strong iPhone cycle, strongprice cycle” to continuegiveniPhone Fold/18upgrade, high-end market sharegains and Google AI partnership. We believe Apple is better positioned tonavigatememoryheadwinds than peersgiven its supply chain leverage andstrong pricing power, and wepreferstocks with content/share gains in new China Technology Sector Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk FY1Q26resultsbeat; RecordiPhone/servicesand ChinarecoveryoffsetMac/Wearables dip.By segment,iPhonerevenuejumped 23% YoYsinceiPhone 17 family andiPadrevenueclimbed 6% YoY driven by M5-powerediPad Pro and A16-powered iPad,whileMac/wearablesrevenuedeclined7%/2% YoY.Servicesrevenue reached all-time high, up 14% YoY thanks todouble-digit growth in paid subscriptions.While the strength was led byGreater China(38% YoY)withrecord iPhone upgraders and double-digit FY2Q26outlook:iPhone strength to continuewithresilient GPMdespitememoryheadwinds and SoC supply constraints.Mgmt.guided 1)FY2Q26E revenuegrowthof13-16% YoYdespiteiPhone supply constraints,2)service revenue growth atsimilar double-digit rate to FY1Q26(+14%YoY),and3)robust GPM at 48-49%(vs 47.6%consensus).Other highlightsinclude:1)Memory cost:Mgmt.statedthatmemory costhikehad minimalimpact on FY1Q26GPMwhileFY2Q26GPM guidanceincludedimpactsfromhigher memory costs, which we believereflectsbenefits fromitssupply chainleverageand product premiumization.2)Advanced capacity(3nm)constraint:Mgmt.expressed concerns overSoCsupply constraintgiven Expect strong iPhone cycleto drive restocking into 1H26E;Prefer Applesupply chain over Android camp.We believe upbeat guidance and strongiPhonecycle with lean inventorywillalleviatemarket concernsovermemoryheadwinds. Asstatedin2026outlook, we are positive oniPhone Fold/18,smart home products and Apple Intelligence upgradein 2026. We prefer Source: Company data,IDC,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers AnalystCertification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar daysprior to the date of issue of this report; (2) will Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in the This report or any information contained herein, have been prepared by theCMBIGM, solely forthe purpose of supplying information to the clients ofCMBIGMor its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyone CMBIGMhas exerted every effort in its capacity to ensure, but not to guarantee, their accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness.CMBIGMprovidesthe information, advices and forecasts on an "AS IS" basis.Theinformation and contents are subject to change without notice.CMBIGMmay issue otherpublications having information and/ or conclusions different from this report.These publications reflect different assumption, point-of-view and analyticalmethods when compiling.CMBIGMmay make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recomm