博通：AI优势助力季度业绩再超预期并上调指引；预计2026财年AI收入增长将加速

on AI strength; AI rev growth toaccelerate in FY26 Broadcom:Anotherbeat-and-raisequarter onAIstrength;AIrevgrowth to accelerate inFY26 Broadcom(AVGO US, NR)delivered anotherstandoutF3Q25(Jun year-end)and raised AIrevenueoutlookfor both F4Q25 and FY26,fromanalreadyelevated guidance(previously guided+60%YoY in FY26),confirmingthatthe investment momentum in AI infrastructure remains China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk F3Q25:Broadcom’s3QrevenuewasUS$16.0bn(slightlyaboveguidance/BBGconsensusby1.0%/0.7%), up22%/6% YoY/QoQ,driven by AIsemiconductors and VMwarestrength.Non-GAAPGPMwas 78.4% (-100bpsQoQ), largely in line, reflecting product mix shift toward XPUs and wireless.Non-GAAPNPreachedUS$8.4bn(+37% YoY, +8% QoQ),beatingconsensusby 2%, demonstrating strong operating leverage.By segment, semiconductor(57% of total sales) revenue increased 26%/9% YoY/QoQ to US$9.2bn, whileinfrastructure softwaregrew17%/3% YoY/QoQ to US$6.8bn.Non-GAAPNP Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Related reports: 1.Semiconductors-AIinfra.spendingcontinuestorise;Nvidia’s outlook points to robustdemand(link)2.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: 1H25AIdemandcheck;Computedemand continues to grow(link)3.Semiconductors-Solid 2Q resultsforBroadcom;eyesonthedevelopment of AI inference(link)4.Semiconductors-Nvidia’s 1Q beatand solid 2Q guidance confirm AIdemand remains resilient(link)5.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: China’shyperscalers accelerate AI infra.buildout amid strengthening clouddemand(link)6.Semiconductors-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends:Resilient1Q25 capex amonghyperscalers(link)7.Semiconductors-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends: F4Q25:Mgmt.guides 4Q revenue to be US$17.4bn,implying 24%/9%YoY/QoQ growth (semiconductor+30% YoY;software +15% YoY)and beatingBBGconsensus by 2%. GPM is guided down by 70bpsQoQ, a mixed impactfrom greater wireless,XPU and software revenue.The company continuesto execute flawlessly in capturing AIinfrastructure demand, underpinned AIsemiconductorrevenue to acceleratein FY26E.AI semiconductorrevenuesurged by 63%/18%YoY/QoQ in F3Q25 to US$5.2bn (exceeding guidance of US$5.1bn),representing56.5% of semiconductorsales(vs. 52.4% in F2Q).XPUs accounted for 65% of AI revenue (+5 pptsQoQ), reflecting continued adoption and share gains with three leading customers.Mgmt. highlighted a fourthcustomer(likely to be OpenAI, permedia report),contributing overUS$10bnin AI rack orders, withshipmentsexpected to begin in F3Q26.Mgmt.guided a US$6.2bn AI revenue inF4Q(+66%YoYand +19% QoQ), andnow expectsthegrowth in FY26to accelerate beyond the ~60% level anticipated last quarter, driven byramping volumes from existing customers and the new fourth client.Per Non-AI Semiconductors:slowrecoveryunderway.Revenue was flatQoQ atUS$4.0bn. Broadband showed strength, but enterprise,networkingand storage remainedsoft.F4Q guidance implies low double-digit sequentialgrowth toUS$4.6bn,ledby seasonal strength in broadband, storage, andwireless.Mgmt.expects a U-shaped recovery, with a more meaningful InfrastructureSoftware:steady growth with VMware.Revenue ofUS$6.8bn(+17% YoY, +3% QoQ) exceeded guidance ofUS$6.7bn.GPMexpanded to 93%as VMware integration drove operating leverage.Thelaunch of VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) 9.0 enabled enterprises to runAI, centralized, and traditional workloads on privatecloud infrastructure.Over 90% of Broadcom’s top 10k VMware accounts have adopted VCF Source:Company data, CMBIGMNote: All reporting periods are based on company’s financial year Source:Company data, CMBIGMNote: All reportingperiods are based on company’s financial year Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered inthis research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock withpotential return of +15% to-1