超微电脑（SMCI）2026财年第一季度：似曾相识——又一次业绩不及预期与上调指引…通往无利繁荣之路？

U.S. IT Hardware Super Micro Computer Inc RatingMarket-Perform Price Target 42.00 USD(46.00OLD) SMCI FQ1'26: Deja Vu - Another miss and raise... The path toprofitless prosperity? Yesterday after the market close, SMCI reported FQ1’26 earnings which missed across theboard driven mainly by weak revenue. Shares were down 9% in aftermarket. FQ1’26 revenue and EPS both missed significantly (but revenue inline with prelimrelease).Revenue came in at $5B vs. consensus at $6.1B, down 15.5% YoY and 12.8%QoQ. On October 23rd, SMCI unexpectedly issued its revised FQ1 revenue guidance ofapprox. $5B vs. its previously guided range of $6-7B blaming “last minute configurationupgrades from a major customer”. Deja Vu… Another miss and raise:Despite the disappointing results, managementincreased FQ2’26 and FY26 revenue guidance to $10-11B and “at least $36B” respectively.The company talked about $13B in orders for GB300 product line and their confidence ofrevenue acceleration going forwards (but at the expense of deteriorating gross margin). Gross margin to deteriorate further to 6.5% in FQ2’26, but operating leverage helps. On net, we lower our estimates on lower gross margins but higher revenues.Althoughthe company has a miserable track record of6 consecutive quarters in a row of missesvs. consensus, we give the company some benefit of the doubt that revenue growth will re-accelerate. However, we are projecting revenue and EPS slightly below the low end of thecompany guide to be conservative based on recent track record. Investment Implications We maintain Market-Perform and lower our target price from $46 to $42, based onlower FY27 EPS estimates of $2.59 (vs. previously $2.85) with the same PE multiple of 16x.We note that the 16x price to forward earnings multiple is significantly higher than the 5year average of 13.5x, but that may be warranted given the higher growth profile. We doworry however about consistent misses vs. guidance and consensus and continued margindegradation, and expect to see near term downside as the market digests recent numbers. DETAILS Revenue missed, and inline with prelim release, but guidance raised for FQ2’26 and FY26: •FQ1’26 revenue came inline with prelim release, lower than prior guidance.Revenue came in at $5.02bn (vs.consensus at $6.1bn), down 15.5% YoY and12.8% QoQ. On October 23rd, Super Micro unexpectedly issued its FQ1guidance, guiding prelim FQ1 revenue of approximately $5bn - below the previously guided range of $6 - 7bn. The companyattributed the revenue shortfall to “design win upgrades” in the prelim release and “last-minute configuration upgrades fromcustomer” in prepared remarks - which has the impact of shifting $1.5bn of anticipated Q1 FY26 revenue into Q2. •A Deja Vu of “delayed revenue recognition” leading to a miss (and a raise).Similar to the last earnings call (FQ4’25),Super Micro highlighted another postponement in revenue recognition from a major customer in FQ1’26, due to last minutechanges in specifications and the related revenue expected to be recognized in the following quarter. Therepeated natureof these misses being attributed to customer related push outs does cause some concern. •The nature of the revenue delays indicates a lack of bargaining power.During our recent callback, we pressedmanagement on the specifics of these revenue recognition delays. They explained to us that for large-scale projects,forecasting shipment volumes within a three-month period is difficult due to potential last-minute changes. For instance,a client might purchase a rack solution but then request a last-minute modification to the liquid cooling system, promptingthe company to reconfigure the order accordingly, which results in delayed revenue recognition. This highly accommodativestance partly explains the remarkable revenue growth but also margin compression, reflecting a lack of bargaining powerand customer concentration. •Raising revenue guidance for FY26 and FQ2’26 on the back of strong orders.The company stated that the GB300product line now has more than $13bn in orders (note that they don’t usually disclose orders). AI GPU platforms, whichrepresent >75% of Q1 revenue, continue to be the key growth driver. SuperMicro mentioned that it is seeing acceleratingdemand across cloud, enterprise and sovereign markets as they upgrade and expand the data centers for AI. Probably aidedby this order momentum, company raised FY26 revenue to “at least $36bn”, up from previous guidance of “>$33bn”. Q2/26revenue guided $10-11bn, 110% QoQ growth required to deliver the mid-point. Gross margin to deteriorate further in FQ2’26 but operating leverage helps: •FQ1’26 gross margin came in at 9.5%(vs. consensus 9.6%), down 360bps YoY and 10bps QoQ. •FQ2’26 gross margin was guided at 6.5%, another 300bps slippage.Management mentioned two reasons for themargin contraction: 1) unfavorable customer and product mix - basically calling out the Q1 large design-win as a marginheadwind wh