Dollar General公司2025年第一季度业绩强劲超预期；2025财年指引上调但仍较为保守

5,935.94 RatingOutperformPrice TargetDGAdjusted EPSDG (USD)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.remains conservativeDG reported earnings this morning with a strong Q1 beat and a raise of FY25 guidance.In Q1, DG generated a strong top and bottom line beat. Comp sales growth of 2.4%beat sellside consensus expectations, while in line with buyside expectations. DG alsomeaningfully outperformed gross margin expectations, with an 80bps YoY improvement ledby lower shrink and higher inventory markups. EPS of $1.78 was a 32c beat.The company raised FY25 guide to reflect the strong Q1 beat, but stuck to aconservative outlook for the rest of the year. DG raised the mid point of net sales andcomp sales growth guidance from by 30bps, almost exclusively reflecting the Q1 beatwithout assuming any improvement vs. prior expectations in Q2-Q4. DG also raised the lowend of EPS guidance from $5.10 to $5.20 while maintaining the high end of EPS guidance at$5.80, which we believe could be conservative.Within the guide, DG expects continued tariff uncertainties (including a potential reversion oftariff rates back to “Liberation Day” levels after mid August) to pressure consumer spending,despite its ability to mitigate most of the tariff-related COGS impact at current rates. GivenDG’s relatively low tariff exposure (~4% direct import exposure and ~10% overall exposure),we believe that its approach to guidance is among the most conservative within our coverageand see additional upside from here.Overall, we are encouraged by the strong performance in Q1as DG started to showprogress in gross margin recovery while the trade-in benefit supported comp sales growth.We see further upside potential in FY25 compared to DG’s conservative guide, whichwill be predicated on the health of DG’s core low income consumers, trade-in from middleto high income consumers, comp sales lift from store remodels, as well as DG’s ability tocontinue to make progress in gross margin improvement despite tariff uncertainties.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 11:39 UTC Completion Date: 03 Jun 2025 11:39 UTC F24AF25EF26E5.116.107.05FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRReported EPS5.116.107.0517.4%Revenues (M)40,61242,65044,6774.9%SG&A (M)10,30310,69811,2604.5%Net Earnings (M)1,1251,3431,55117.4%FCF (M)1,686188.541,8665.2%Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$160$140$120$100$8006/24 Comp sales and gross margins were stronger than expected in Q1. In 1Q25, Dollar General grew net sales by +5.3% YoYto $10.4B (+160bps vs. consensus). Comp sales grew +2.4% (vs. consensus of +1.2%) driven by +2.7% transaction growthand offset by -0.3% traffic. DG saw net sales growth in all categories, with seasonal leading at +6.2% this quarter, followed byhome (+5.9%), consumables (+5.2%), and apparel (+3.2%).Gross margin increased +80bps YoY to 31.0% (above consensus of 30.4%) driven primarily by lower shrink and higherinventory markups, partially offset by increased markdowns. Adj. EBIT margin was flat YoY at 5.5% (vs. consensus of 4.7%) asSG&A increases were led by investments in retail labor, incentive compensation, and repairs and maintenance. EPS of $1.78was a 32c beat.DG increased FY guidance to account for strength in Q1. The company now expects net sales growth of 3.7%-4.7% (prior:3.4%-4.4%, vs. consensus 3.8%) for FY25. This includes same store sales growth expectations in a range of 1.5%-2.5% (prior:1.2%-2.2%). DG expects diluted EPS of $5.20-$5.80 (prior: $5.10-$5.80, vs. consensus $5.61). This assumes that the currenttariff rates remain in place through mid-August 2025.In FY25, DG continues to expect to open 575 new stores in the US (down from 700-900 in previous years), up to 15 in Mexico,fully remodel 2,000 stores, partly remodel 2,250 mature stores through Project Elevate, and relocate 45 stores.EXHIBIT 1:DG Q1'25 Results TableQ1 24Q4 24Q1 25YoY ∆Q1 25E∆ vs.BERNeQ1 25E∆ vs. ConsIncome StatementNet sales9,91410,30410,4365.3%10,3900.4%10,2781.5%Net sales growth6.1%4.5%5.3%-80bps4.8%+50bps3.7%+160bpsComp sales growth2.4%1.2%2.4%+0bps2.2%+20bps1.2%+120bpsGross profit2,9923,0303,2318.0%3,1482.6%3,1243.4%Gross profit margin30.2%29.4%31.0%+80bps30.3%+70bps30.4%+60bpsAdj. Operating Income5462945765.5%51312.4%48518.8%Adj. Operating Margin5.5%2.9%5.5%+0bps4.9%+60bps4.7%+80bpsNet Income3631913927.9%33816.1%32122.1%Net Income Margin3.7%1.9%3.8%+10bps3.2%+50bps3.1%+60bpsAdj. Diluted EPS1.65$0.87$1.78$7.8%1.53$16.0%1.46$21.6%Diluted Shares2202202200.0%2200.0%2200.1%Number of Stores20,14920,59420,5822.1%20,739-0.8%20,642-0.3%Selling Sq Footage (m)1531571572.9%158-0.8%1570.1%Selling Sq Ft / Store7,5747,6187,6280.7%7,6280.0%7,6010.3%ResultsBERNeConsensus - BBGSource: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Berntsein analysis and estimatesUS RETAILING BROADLINES & HARDLIN