美国消费策略：消费表现何时复苏？科技回暖与高运费令消费板块承压

U.S. Consumer Strategy: When will I be loved? Resurgenceof tech & spiking freight keep Consumer subdued - WebinarTranscript We recently published a note (U.S. Consumer Strategy: When will I be loved? Resurgenceof tech & spiking freight keep Consumer performance subdued) and held a correspondingwebinar to discuss the primary takeaways (replay available here). Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com U.S. Consumer stocks across both Discretionary and Staples sectors haveunderperformed the market over the past quarter.This may be because the techsector, which was flattish in the first quarter, picked up strongly over the past 3 months,and Consumer stocks became a source of funds for this rally. So now we have the U.S.Consumer Discretionary space sitting at the lowest crowding level that we have seen inover 25 years, which could make for some interesting investment opportunities. Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com Zhihan Ma, CFA+1 917 344 8303zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Fundamentally, and with a disconcerting feeling of déjà vu, we worry that the recentspike in U.S. trucking rates could pressure anything with a physical supply chain inthe U.S.: While larger companies are likely to enjoy some protection from forward contractsfor the next 6 - 9 months, we may find that smaller players have to absorb the blows fromrising freight prices in the nearer term. Fortunately, this likely means thatHotels, Resortsand Cruise Lineswill hang in somewhat better than other sectors. Cristian Rios+1 917 344 8615cristian.rios@bernsteinsg.com Nadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 7676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com Clearly it’s still rather hard to call where oil prices will go from here, given the veryrecent skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz: Either way, U.S. consumers are likely toremain in a holding pattern until it is clear that rising gas and grocery prices are in the rearview mirror, which frankly could be quite some time. Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Overall, we’d recommend a neutral position in U.S. Consumer, given the ongoingweakness in consumer sentiment, as well as spiking freight inflation. We’d also bemore cautious on sectors where U.S. trucking is a relatively high proportion of COGS, andalso steer clear of smaller players in such sectors. Within U.S. Consumer Discretionary, wemaintain our constructive view onHotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines(and particularly theHotel chains), as well asApparel/Off Price Retailgiven its ongoing solid momentum.Within U.S. Consumer Staples, we now recommend an overweight position inDollarStores, especially given the pullback in stock prices set against solid fundamentals. And wemaintain our positive views onBroadline RetailandSoft Beverages. Ryan Dou+1 917 344 8451ryan.dou@bernsteinsg.com Cinnie Lin+1 917 344 8567cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com As for specific names in each of these sectors, our fundamental analysts are recommendingDG, DOL, TJX, TPR, MAR, H, VIK, WMT, KDP and CELHfor this year. For more individualnames recommended by our fundamental analysts in each of the subsectors that we cover,please see the commentary from individual analysts below. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate MDLZ, MKC, SJM, ADS, BURL, NKE, ONON, TJX, TPR, STZ, CUERVO*.MM, ABI.BB, HEIA.NA, DGE.LN, RI.FP, RCO.FP,CPR.IM, CAVA, CMG, DRI, PFGC, QSR, SBUX, USFD, WING, MAR, H, RCL, WMT, COST, DOL.CN, DG, LOW, FIVE, and KDPOutperform. We rate BRBR, HSY, LW, SMPL, TSN, PM, MO, CPRI, DECK, LULU, PTON, ROST, SFIX, TAP, SAM, BF/B, DPZ, MCD,SYY, WEN, YUM, HLT, IHG.LN, CCL, TGT, DLTR, HD, KO, PEP, MNST, PG, CL, ELF, and EL Market-Perform. We rate CAG, CPB,GIS, and KHC Underperform. DETAILS Alexia Howard, Senior Analyst, US Food Good morning everybody, and good afternoon if you're over in Europe. My name's Alexia Howard, I've been covering the USFood sector for the past 20 years at Bernstein, and we have many of our other US consumer analysts on both the staples anddiscretionary sides that are joining us today. For those of you that are listening in, there's the opportunity to put a questioninto the pigeonhole link that's in the invitation to this webinar, so please feel free to drop those anonymous questions into thepigeonhole, and I can get to those a little bit later on. The order of play today, as always, is I will give a run-through of the analytical results that we've got coming out of the quantanalysis across the US consumer space over the last quarter or so. We'll then be turning to each of our fundamental analysts,who'll give you the top picks in each space and the themes and catalysts that are coming up, and then we'll open it up toquestions at the end. This is the third installment in our quarterly US Consumer Strategy series that we started late in 2025. Now, if you remember,last quarter, we saw a very nice run in Staples at the start of