美国消费者策略：何时受青睐？科技复苏与货运飙升压制消费者表现

U.S. Consumer Strategy: When will I be loved? Resurgence oftech & spiking freight keep Consumer performance subdued underperformed the marketoverthe pastquarter.This may be because the techsector,which was flattish in the firstquarter, picked up strongly over the past 3 months,and Consumer stocks becamea source offunds for thisrally.So now we havethe U.S.Consumer Discretionaryspace sitting atthe lowest crowding levelthat we have seen inover 25years,whichcouldmakeforsomeinteresting investment opportunities. +19173448453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com +442076766850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com spike in U.S.trucking rates could pressure anything with a physical supply chain intheU.S.:Whilelargercompaniesarelikelytoenjoysomeprotectionfromforward contractsforthenext 6-9 months,wemay find that smallerplayers haveto absorb theblows fromrising freight prices in the nearer term. Fortunately, this likely means that Hotels, Resortsand Cruise Lines will hang in somewhat better than other sectors. +44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com And speakingofHotels,werathersuspectthattheWorld Cupcouldgeneratesomesurprising earnings curveballs this quarter:As a music venue owner in upstate NewYork, it's been surprising how much the World Cup has pressured ticket sales in recentweeks,since so manypeopleseemgluedtoTVs ormakingpilgrimages tostadiums acrossthe countryto seethesegames live.Wecouldwell see some unusual changes inconsumerbehaviorasaresultofgoalfeverthissummer. Zhihan Ma, CFA+19173448303zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Cristian Rios+1917344 8615cristian.rios@bernsteinsg.com Clearly it's still rather hard to call where oil prices will go fromhere,given the veryrecent skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz: Either way,U.S.consumers are likely toview mirror, which frankly could be quite some time. Nadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 7676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com AneeshaSherman+1917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@beernsteinsg.com Overall, we'drecommend a neutral position in U.S.Consumer,given the ongoingweakness in consumer sentiment,as wellas spiking freight inflation.We'd also bemore cautious on sectors where U.S.trucking is a relatively high proportion of COGS,andalso steer clear of smaller players in such sectors.Within U.S.Consumer Discretionary,wemaintain our constructive view on Hotels,Resorts and Cruise Lines (and particularly theHotel chains),as well as Apparel/off Price Retail given its ongoing solidmomentum.Within U.S.Consumer Staples, wenow recommend an overweight position inDollarmaintainour positiveviews on Broadline Retail and Soft Beverages. Trevor Stirling+44 20 7676 7521pernsteinsg.com Ryan Dou+1917344 8451 Cinnie Lin+19173448567cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com Asforspecificnames ineachofthesesectors,ourfundamentalanalystsarerecommendingDG, DOL, TJX, TPR, MAR, H, VIK, WMT, KDP and CELH for this year. For more individualnamesrecommendedbyourfundamentalanalysts ineachofthesubsectorsthatwecover,please see the commentary from individual analysts below. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS CPR.IM, CAVA, CMG, DRI, PFGC, QSR,SBUX, USFD, WING, MAR, H, RCL, WMT, COST, DOL.CN, DG, and LOW Outperform. Werate BRBR, HSY, LW, SMPL, TSN, PM, MO, CPRI, DECK, LULU, PTON, ROST, SFIX, TAP, SAM, BF/B, DPZ, MCD, SYY, WEN, YUM,HLT, IHG.LN, CCL, TGT, DLTR, HD, and FIVE Market-Perform. We rate CAG, CPB, GIS, and KHC Underperform. 2026year-to-date(YTD)relativetothemarketandputthis intoahistoricalcontext.We thendrill down intowhat hasdriven thisperformance,intermsofvaluationmultiplechanges and earnings revisions,andweave inamorequalitativeexplanationforwhatisbehindthesemovesfromour U.S.ConsumerAnalysts.Finally,welookouttonextquarterandmake recommendationson howfundamentalthemeswillplayoutacrosssubsectors,includingwhenwemightexpectparticularcatalysts performance has evolved over the past 3 months: U.S. Consumer Strategy: In the face of geopolitical conflict,U.S. Consumerhasnotbeenasafehaven-Wheretofromhere? dashboard. U.S.ConsumerstocksacrossbothDiscretionaryandStaplessectorshaveunderperformedthemarketoverthepast quarter.This maybebecause the tech sector,which wasflattish inthefirstquarter,pickedup stronglyoverthe past3monthsand Consumer stocksbecamea sourceoffunds forthis rally.Sonowwehavethe U.S.Consumer Discretionaryspacesitting atthe lowest crowdinglevel that we have seen in over 25 years, which couldmake for some interesting investment opportunities. forward contracts for the next 6 -9 months, we may find that smaller players have to absorb the blows from rising freight pricesin the nearer term.Fortunately, this likely means that Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines will hang in somewhat better than othersectors. this quarter: As a music venue owner in upstate New York, it's been surprising how much the World Cup has pressured ticketsales inrecent weeks,since somany peopleseem glued to TVs ormaking pilgrimages to stadiumsacross the country to seethesegames live.Wecouldwell see s