仍存疑虑：中美贸易紧张局势缓和引致欧元区通胀市场的战术性反弹。我们认为全球宏观背景不利于通胀估值更持续的复苏。在调和消费者物价指数（不包括烟草）（HICPx）曲线方面，熊市与牛市两种情形下，5 - 10年期区域的表现或逊于曲线两端。

FIGURE 2. EUR 1y1y real rates are back above zero, helping tocompress the real term premium5y5y HICPx-50-250255075100May-24Aug-24bpEUR real rates1y1y10y10ySource: Bloomberg, Barclays Live, Barclays ResearchRestricted - External Nov-24Feb-25May-252y3y5y5yEA HLW r-starIaroslav Shelepko+44 (0) 20 7773 3557iaroslav.shelepko@barclays.comBarclays, UKJonathan Hill, CFA+1 212 526 3497jonathan.hill@barclays.comBCI, US Given the US-Chinatariffnews was largely unexpected we think unwinding of investors'positioning (ie, long front-end rates, short inflation) may have partially contributed to the latestrepricing. A more durable EUR inflation rally will likely be harder to achieve as long as globaltrade uncertainty remains high and weighs on EA consumer confidence and GDP growthmomentum. Also, support for the front-end HICPx pricing from the crude oil recovery is startingto wane, in our view. At $63/b Brent, oil prices are still below but reasonably close to ouranalysts' fair value estimates (2025 avg: $66/b). We therefore see the latest rebound in EURinflation valuations as largely tactical at this stage. This thesis is thematically similar to that ofour US inflation-focused colleagues, who are recommending shorts in a front-end forward TIPS-implied breakeven (see TIPS section), partially because pricing beyond one year looks extendedversus Barclays economists' forecasts.We continue to recommend being short 5y5y HICPx vs 20yfwd5y HICPx (p&l: 7bp) as we expectback-end forwards to outperform in a "back to asell-off"regime, but also likely hold up wellagainst the 5y5y in a stabilization scenario. We see the likelihood of a robust EUR inflation rallyas relatively limited in the current global macro environment where downside growth riskscontinue to dominate. If we are wrong and the inflation rally has more room to run, front-endHICPx forwards should outperform since these are still priced below levels consistent with a 2%ECB inflation target on a sub-3y horizon ( Figure 3). For this scenario, our tactical/carry-drivenlong in 5y Spain BEs (p&l: 7bp inc. carry and energy hedge) should also work well as adirectional view.Aftera short pause EUR linker supply will resume next week with the AFTissuing OATi/eis. The auction should give an indication of client demand for EUR real yields andbreakevens in this new trade war de-escalation regime.In data, this week April CPI breakdowns from Germany, France and Spain confirmed that re-acceleration of EA services inflation last month was driven mainly by volatile seasonalcomponents including transport and accommodation which experienced strong price increasesaround Easter ( Figure 4). Elsewhere, underlying momentum in core services prices has beenrelativelysoft,supporting the case for further gradual disinflation. We think the April datasurprise should not be completely discounted since it probably reflects robust consumerdemand for travel and recreation, which supports firms' pricing power. With summer travelseason on the radar, we think more upside surprises from volatile seasonal components couldfollow, further delaying services disinflation until autumn. This wouldaffectthe relative pricingof HICPx fixings, potentiallyliftingJul-25 and Aug-25 fixings vs Sep-25 and Nov-25fixings. However, it should not have a material impact on the pricing of 1y+ HICPx swaps.2 Target = level consistent with the ECB's 2% EA HICP targetSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Live, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. Summary of open trade ideasTradeDateenteredStatusLong SPGBei 2030 BE, 0.6 energybeta-hedged2-May-25Open5y5y-20yfwd5y HICPx steepener10-Mar-25OpenShort DBRei 33 iota spread20-Feb-25OpenSource: Barclays Live, Barclays Research15 May 2025 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Iaroslav Shelepko and Jonathan Hill, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.