美国医疗用品与设备行业回顾与展望 - 医疗科技本周表现不佳，受ISRG和PODD拖累

9Restricted -External U.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesPOSITIVEU.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesMatt Miksic+12125269189matt.miksic@barclays.comBCI, USWilliam McMahon+12125263816william.mcmahon@barclays.comBCI, US MedTech business lines, including Ortho, Spine, Advanced Surgery and Vision Care; 4) Potentialupdate and next steps related to talc litigation, and; 5) Update on the impact of China VBPprograms on the company's Advanced Surgery business. We summarize our estimates vsconsensus andmanagementguidance in Figure 11ABT: Expect Potential Upside Risk Relative to Consensus Driven by Continued Strength inEP and Diabetes (OW, PT $159, Jul 17 BMo): We see the potential for ABT to deliver upside toEP and Diabetes, as well as sequential improvements in Core Lab Diagnostics. In addition tosector-wide topics of interest such as utilization and margin trends, we expect key topics for theplans for its dual-analyte sensor launch planned for 1H26; 3) Updates on recent launches andkey pipeline programs, including Triclip (tricuspid repair), Aveir (single and dual-chamberleadlesspacemaker),Navitor (TAvR),Volt (PFAcatheterforafibablation)andintravascularlithotripsy (ivL);4)Potential updateonnextstepsrelatedtoongoinglitigationofliabilityclaimsassociated with infant formula, and 5) Capital allocation priorities and management's updatedviews on the environment for strategic investment. We summarize our estimates vs. consensusand managementguidance in Figure 12.MDT: RDN NCD is Unexpectedly Positive, Pointing Towards the High End of Our Estimates(Jul 11): CMS's draft NCD memo proposes broad coverage for RDN, including access for 6 milpatients in the U.S. suffering from uncontrolled HTN. Given these mixed expectations, thebroader 6 mil U.S. patient coverage group (>140 mm Hg) is an unexpected and positive surpriseequates to ~s1 bil. In terms of near-term sales contribution, we estimate MDT's SymplicitySpyral renal denervation system could generate $125-175 mil in F26 and $250 - 350 mil in F27,positive, raising our conviction in MDT's ability to deliver durable mid-single digit organicreiterate our QW rating and s109 price target.ABT: Forrher NICU Director Adds Perspective to Infant Formula Litigation (Jul 9): Based on@ore than 25 years of experience in the NicU, our expert underscores the importance of bovineinfant formula in the nutrition of pre-term infants when mother's milk is unavailable. Of thebirths at our expert's center, ~7-8% were pre-term, and 0.5-1.0% of those patients developedNEC requiring surgery: The rates of NEC at Dr. Langbaum's were relatively low, with totalincidence of 2-3%, and 70-80% of those cases able to recover without surgery. These rates ofincidence are consistent with our analysis of the overall potential liability facing ABT, which wecontinue to view as manageable. Although the timeline to resolution it not certain, we wouldexpect the removal of uncertainty to be an incremental positive for the stock. We view thetakeaways from our call as being supportive of our OW rating and s159 price target on ABT.Barclays 2Q25 Hospital Survey: Respondents See Surgeries Slowing, SentimentDeteriorating and Easing Capex Expectations for Smaller Hospitals (Jul 9): Inpatient andOutpatient surgeries have been on a steady glide lower over the past 5-6 quarters, and ourrespondents expect further deceleration in Q2 (down 1-2% from Q1.) Inpatient surgeries areexpected to grow 2% in Q2, from an average of ~2.9% over the prior four quarters, andoutpatient surgeries are expected to slow to 2.5% in Q2, from an average of ~3.8% over the priorfour quarters. Our respondents ranked ortho procedures as having the most significantsequential step up from Q1 to Q2, followed by robotic surgery, cardiac surgery, and AF ablation.This type of slowdown would have the most significant negative impact on UW-rated ZBH andOW-rated EW and SYK (please see our note Who's Most Sensitive to 2025 U.S. Procedure Volumes?,published Nov 21, 2024). Conversely, our analysis indicates that OW-rated ABT and (surprisingly)2 ISRG are among the least impacted by a slowdown procedure volumes. Respondents remainrelatively bullish on robot spending, with 73% of respondents expecting to purchase at least 1robot this year, down from 80% over the prior two years. However, overall sentiment amongrespondents has deteriorated over the past four quarters, from 64-65% positive in 2H24, to 51%in Q1 and only 41% for Q2. Notably, capex spending expectations for 2025 among smallerhospitals are flat in this survey, down from 3-5% over the previous 3-4 quarters. Names in ouruniverse most exposed to changes in hospital capital equipment spending in general are Ow-rated SYK, BDX and BAX (please see our note MedTech Names Most (and Least) Exposed to U.SCap Equip Sales, published Mar 6).INMD Q2 Preliminary Sales Fall Short, Partially Offset by Higher GM; 2025 Sales GuideLowered (Jul 10): Mgmt expects Q2 sales to be $95.4 - 95.5 mil, ~$4-6 mil below our estimateand Bloomberg con