美国消费者策略：科技股反弹与货运飙升令美国消费者板块表现疲软

U.S. Consumer Strategy: When will I be loved? Resurgence oftech & spiking freight keep Consumer performance subdued U.S. Consumer stocks across both Discretionary and Staples sectors haveunderperformed the market over the past quarter.This may be because the techsector, which was flattish in the first quarter, picked up strongly over the past 3 months,and Consumer stocks became a source of funds for this rally. So now we have the U.S.Consumer Discretionary space sitting at the lowest crowding level that we have seen inover 25 years, which could make for some interesting investment opportunities. Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Fundamentally, and with a disconcerting feeling of déjà vu, we worry that the recentspike in U.S. trucking rates could pressure anything with a physical supply chain inthe U.S.: While larger companies are likely to enjoy some protection from forward contractsfor the next 6 - 9 months, we may find that smaller players have to absorb the blows fromrising freight prices in the nearer term. Fortunately, this likely means thatHotels, Resortsand Cruise Lineswill hang in somewhat better than other sectors. Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com And speaking of Hotels, we rather suspect that the World Cup could generate somesurprising earnings curveballs this quarter: As a music venue owner in upstate NewYork, it’s been surprising how much the World Cup has pressured ticket sales in recentweeks, since so many people seem glued to TVs or making pilgrimages to stadiums acrossthe country to see these games live. We could well see some unusual changes in consumerbehavior as a result of goal fever this summer. Zhihan Ma, CFA+1 917 344 8303zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Cristian Rios+1 917 344 8615cristian.rios@bernsteinsg.com Clearly it’s still rather hard to call where oil prices will go from here, given the veryrecent skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz: Either way, U.S. consumers are likely toremain in a holding pattern until it is clear that rising gas and grocery prices are in the rearview mirror, which frankly could be quite some time. Nadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 7676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Overall, we’d recommend a neutral position in U.S. Consumer, given the ongoingweakness in consumer sentiment, as well as spiking freight inflation. We’d also bemore cautious on sectors where U.S. trucking is a relatively high proportion of COGS, andalso steer clear of smaller players in such sectors. Within U.S. Consumer Discretionary, wemaintain our constructive view onHotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines(and particularly theHotel chains), as well asApparel/Off Price Retailgiven its ongoing solid momentum.Within U.S. Consumer Staples, we now recommend an overweight position inDollarStores, especially given the pullback in stock prices set against solid fundamentals. And wemaintain our positive views onBroadline RetailandSoft Beverages. Trevor Stirling+44 20 7676 7521trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com Ryan Dou+1 917 344 8451ryan.dou@bernsteinsg.com Cinnie Lin+1 917 344 8567cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com As for specific names in each of these sectors, our fundamental analysts are recommendingDG, DOL, TJX, TPR, MAR, H, VIK, WMT, KDP and CELHfor this year. For more individualnames recommended by our fundamental analysts in each of the subsectors that we cover,please see the commentary from individual analysts below. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate MDLZ, MKC, SJM, ADS, BURL, NKE, ONON, TJX, TPR, STZ, CUREVO*.MM, ABI.BB, HEIA.NA, DGE.LN, RI.FP, RCO.FP,CPR.IM, CAVA, CMG, DRI, PFGC, QSR, SBUX, USFD, WING, MAR, H, RCL, WMT, COST, DOL.CN, DG, and LOW Outperform. Werate BRBR, HSY, LW, SMPL, TSN, PM, MO, CPRI, DECK, LULU, PTON, ROST, SFIX, TAP, SAM, BF/B, DPZ, MCD, SYY, WEN, YUM,HLT, IHG.LN, CCL, TGT, DLTR, HD, and FIVE Market-Perform. We rate CAG, CPB, GIS, and KHC Underperform. DETAILS In this U.S. Consumer Strategy note, we examine how the U.S. Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors have traded in2026 year-to-date (YTD) relative to the market and put this into a historical context. We then drill down into what has driven thisperformance, in terms of valuation multiple changes and earnings revisions, and weave in a more qualitative explanation for whatis behind these moves from our U.S. Consumer Analysts. Finally, we look out to next quarter and make recommendations on howportfolio managers may want to be positioned across the space given quantitative signals and our expectations for how certainfundamental themes will play out across subsectors, including when we might expect particular catalysts. This report is probably best reviewed side by side with our last report from early April, in order to see how each sector’sperforman