开利全球2026年第二季度财报后点评：数据中心展望极为强劲

Price Target CARR 2Q26 Post Earnings: DC outlook very impressive but mixshift causing concerns; raising TP to $78, risk-reward skews +ve Recap of numbers:Broadly speaking, this was a strong print from Carrier. The companyreported Q2 2026 net sales of $6,351 million, beating consensus of approximately $6,017million, representing roughly 4% YoY growth (3% organic) versus Q2 2025 net sales of$6,113 million. Adjusted EPS of $0.86 beat the street estimate of $0.80; down from $0.92 inQ2 2025 (although this was still better than expected). Adjusted operating margin of 17.2%compares with 19.1% in the prior-year period (slightly lighter than expected). Close Date29 Jul 2026CARR Close Price (USD)59.92Price Target (USD)78.00Upside/(Downside)30%52-Week Range76.76/50.24SPX7,316.15FYEDecDiv Yield1.6%Market Cap (USD) (M)49,394EV (USD) (M)60,769 DCs:Mgmt. highlighted ~$1.5B revenue in 2H26 (vs. $0.5B in 1H26), but also expressedconfidence in ability to deliver. Our sense is the $2.5B ARR could continue to get revisedupwards. Commentary indicated CARR is seeing customers request accelerated deliveries ofequipment, not delays (which we had heard from some peers a couple of months ago). We’realso excited to see Carrier’s 5MW CDU product when it releases.US RLC:The turnaroundwas unexpected. CARR has now gone from guiding ‘26 down HSD to up HSD. And 2H26 willlikely be up 20% (partially driven by easy comps but still +ve momentum). Field inventorieshave normalized (down ~20% vs. last year). However, ~5% of this HSD growth comesfrom a lack of destocking headwinds, so the real growth is still LSD. High mortgage ratescontinue to play spoilsport on a resi. recovery.Margin concerns:The biggest concern ismargin compression in 2H26. Think of Carrier as a mid-30%s gross margin business inthe Americas; residential is 5 - 10% higher than and commercial is 5 - 10% lower. DataCenters, while better margin than traditional CHVAC, are still margin dilutive (i.e., below 35%gross). And given the rapid growth vs. residential in the back half of the year, this creates mixpressure that the market did not anticipate. Overall:After the correction post print, CARR valuation looks quite attractive. On a forwardP/E basis, it’s trading at a ~5x turn discount to JCI and ~10x turn discount to TT. Whilewe’re not suggesting it needs to close the gap, we also think there’s been some level ofovercorrection here, especially given the rate of change we’re seeing on DC growth. Investment Implications We re-iterate our Market-Perform on Carrier and raise ourTP to $78 (from $75) (largely dueto rolling forward into the next quarter of earnings) ( details on p 3). DETAILS RECAP OF NUMBERS Broadly speaking, this was a strong print from Carrier. The company reported Q2 2026 net sales of $6,351 million, beatingconsensus of approximately $6,017 million, representing roughly 4% YoY growth (3% organic) versus Q2 2025 net sales of$6,113 million. Adjusted EPS of $0.86 beat the street estimate of $0.80; down from $0.92 in Q2 2025 (although this was stillbetter than expected). Adjusted operating margin of 17.2% compares with 19.1% in the prior-year period (slightly lighter thanexpected, but not needle moving). Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net sales of $23B and adjusted EPS of $2.90, versusthe prior guidance of ~$22 billion sales and $2.80 EPS (Organic growth outlook for 2026 has been raised to MSD-HSD). Datacenter orders continued to show strength with 300% YoY growth (commercial HVAC up 65% and total company up 40%). InCSA, RLC was up HSD vs. the previous year although commercial HVAC revenues were down 8% due to the timing of customerdeliveries. OUR KEY HIGHLIGHTS AND TAKEAWAYS Data Centers 300% orders growth looks strong. There’s still runway before they start to run into tough comps. Management did highlight thatthey expect ~$1.5B in the back half of the year (vs. $0.5B in the front half), but also expressed confidence in ability to deliver.Our sense is the $2.5B ARR will continue to get revised upwards. Commentary from management indicated that they are seeingcustomers request accelerated deliveries of equipment, not delays (which we had heard from some peers a couple of monthsago). The back half of the year seems to largely be execution related, but it also seems like the company is “all hands on deck”to ensure deliveries. We’re not worried about capacity additons (for now), it does seem like these can be repurposed for otherCHVAC offerings if and when needed. We would be cautious about too much more addition though; it seems like the market isout to punish anyone they think is being too liberal with new production lines. Most of data center revenue right now in chillers;although on the margin, we’d also be interested to see Carrier’s 2.5MW and 5MW CDUs later this year when they are released.5MW is particularly impressive; if the specs meet best-in-class expectations (on approach temperature differential, flow rates,etc.) this could be a winning pro