达美乐披萨2026年第二季度财报点评：好于预期，但仍有提升空间

Price Target DPZ Domino's (DPZ): 2Q26 - Better than feared, but MORE to go More to cheer.0.1% SSSG for domestic stores andmeaningfulgrowth in order count havedispelled fears that DPZ could be further contracting in 2H26, driving relative strong stockreaction post-print. Three aspects make us confident:1) positive order-countgrowthacross both delivery and carryout, which could translate into greater frequency over timeas Domino’s expands engagement through its loyalty program;2)the strongerexit rateinthe quarter aided by World Cup and inclusion of Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza into the BestDeal Ever promotion give visibility of a comp acceleration in 3Q,3) A “new”and“unique toDomino’s”pizza (square personal pizza? protein pizza?) may be out earlier than we expected(within the next 6 weeks) and could potentially establish a new consumption occasion. Weraise our FY26 domestic comps to 1.1% as a result of that. More to ponder. 1)With 1H comps broadly flat, maintaining the FY26 LSD SSSG frameworknow requires a L-MSD exit rate in 2H,raising the execution bar- an area where DPZ hassurprisingly been disappointing (first on marketing calendar then on weaker-than-expectedcustomer resonance with the Premium Series - which may call for a tweak in market testingapproach). 2)At DPE, the removal of unprofitable promotional transactions to improvefranchisee economics would likely create a traffic headwind at least through the Fall, butwe expect continued topline pressure through 27 - until the new initiatives to drive ordercount (and profits) will be in place and the optimal premium/value balance is re-established.We lower our int’l SSSG to 1.5% in FY27 as a result. 3) Franchisees’ profitability pressures,driven by ticket drag, are likely temporary yet may still limit the appetite forstore openingsinFY26 (new guidance: 175 stores) and in FY27. Compelling entry point, if delivery returns to stable growth.We believe that the currentvaluation at ~18x NTM EPS embeds a very negative outlook on the QSR industry and on thestock. That said, we do expect the stock pressures to persist until the company demonstratesmore consistent execution and returns to sustainable growth - especially in the deliverychannel. Investment Implications Our TP of $390 assumes a 20x on NTM EPS of $19.55, reflecting moderate optimism thatinvestors’ sentiment will turn more positive on the stock as comps re-accelerate in 2H. DETAILS OUR KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM CONVERSATIONS WITH MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW Domino’s delivered another mixed quarter, with meaningful order-count growth across both delivery and carryout offset bycontinued ticket pressure, resulting in a muted 0.1% U.S. same-store sales increase. Management’s tone notably shiftedfrom prior quarters, placing less emphasis on competitive pressures and more focus on internal execution, specificallyacknowledging that the Premium Series and Slice Sauce failed to resonate with consumers and weighed on ticket performance.At the same time, management expressed greater confidence in the underlying health of demand, highlighting strongtransaction growth, increasing loyalty participation, and continued momentum across aggregator platforms as signs that thebrand continues to attract new customers. We are encouraged by the strength in order count trends, the contribution fromaggregators, and management’s belief that upcoming innovation can expand consumption occasions rather than simply shiftdemand within the existing menu. That said, we think the central question surrounding the upcoming menu introduction iswhether it generates a temporary trial benefit or creates a sustainable incremental occasion, particularly given the recentdisconnect between test and actual market results. We note that Domino’s does not (and has not historically) tested productsin the market prior to full launch but has historically seen a high correlation between consumer test/studies and actual results.That said, with increasingly shorter consumer preference cycles and trend relevance we do wonder if management will tweaktheir testing approach. Additionally, the continued strength of independent pizza operators suggests some consumers maybe gravitating toward more specialized pizza offerings, potentially making it more difficult for Domino’s to fully capitalize oncategory growth despite its scale advantage. Overall, the quarter leaves us more cautious on the path back to Domino’s long-term algorithm, and we expect the valuation debate to persist until management demonstrates more consistent execution and aclearer ability to convert transaction growth into profitable sales growth. PERFORMANCE •Operating income: Increased 2.6% in Q2, excluding the impact of foreign currency and refranchising gains from the saleof certain U.S. company-owned store markets in the second quarters of 2026 and 2025, primarily driven by higher U.S. andinternational franchise royalties and fees. •Global retail sales:Grew 3.0% in the quarter, excluding foreign