AI需求延长ASML至2028年的能见度，目标价上调至2200

ASMLHoldingNV (ASML.AS) AIDemand Extends Visibility into2028;RaisingTPto2,200 ASML'sQ2reinforcesourviewthattheAl-drivensemiinvestment cycle remainsin its early stages,withdemand strengthacrossboth advancedlogic and memory,andmeaningful 2027 and2028 orders alreadyin hand.The combination of rising lithography intensity,accelerating memorycapex,improvingpricingpower,andincreasingcustomervisibilitysupportsamulti-yeargrowthoutlook,promptingustomateriallyraiseestimatesandincreaseTPto2,20Owhileretaining Buyrating andFocus List inclusion. Price (16 Jul 2616:30) strongAl-driven semiconductordemandandimproving customervisibility,drivinga significant increase to 2026 guidance.Leading-edge foundry expansion andstrong HBM/DRAM-driven memorycapex are supporting EUV demand.ASMLexpectslogicsalesgrowthofover25%andmemorygrowthofover75%thisyear. Ordervisibilityhas improveddramatically-ASMLindicated2027Low-NAEUVcapacity is nearly fully booked and is already receiving meaningful 2028 orders,supportingplanstoexpandLow-NAEUVandDUVcapacityby30%in2027withafurther30%increasespossible in2028.Wenowforecast67Low-NAEUVand130DUVimmersionunits in2026,risingto86/170 in2027,withafurtherincreasein2028.0ursystemsalesforecastsmoveup16-45%in2026-28drivenbythehigherunitforecasts,particularlyfrommemoryplayers,coupledwithhigherAsPs. Margins and pricing are improving -Tight capacity and strong demand aresupportive of long-term pricing power. Management highlighted ongoing value-basedpricingdiscussions,withfurtherupsideexpectedashigher-productivity EuVsystems and High-NA EUV become a larger share of the mix. Combined withupgrade demand and operating leverage,this supports apositive margin outlook.High-NAprogresscontinuesasIntelconfirmsvolumeproductionon18A. Materialupgradeto estimates; TPto2,200-—We adjust our2026-26 salesup14-36%andEPSup25-52%drivenbyourhigherforecastsofLow-NAEUVandDUVunitsandASP.Accordingly,ourTPmovesto2,200(from1,675)drivenby28xPEor1xPEGbasedon2028earnings(from39x2027PE).RetainBuyandFocusList. Andrew M.Gardiner, CFAAc+44-20-7986-4206andrew.gardiner@citi.com Pavan Daswani,CFA+44-20-7986-6889pavan.daswani@citi.com Bull/Bear:ASMLHolding NV (ASML.AS) .Macrobackdrop:InflationproveslessentrenchedandmoderationofbankingstressesCY26Erevenue:>30%growthinlogicsystemsalesand>100%growth inmemorysystemsales。~1.3xPEGbasedonFY28earnings BASEAssumptions .Macrobackdrop:Aseriesofrollingcountry-levelrecessionsandmoderationofbankingstressesBase case revenueand EPS aligned withour underlying financial model BEARAssumptions .Macrobackdrop:Elevated concerns associated withbankingstressesresultinginmeaningfulmoderation ofglobal GDpgrowthCY26revenue:limitedgrowth inlogicsystemsalesandmemorysystemsales·~0.6xPEGbasedonFY28earnings ASMLHoldingNV Companydescription systems used in integrated circuit semiconductor manufacturing.Since itsfounding in1984, ASMLhas grown rapidlyto become the world'stop 3semiconductorequipmentcompanyandthelargestmanufacturerofphotolithographyscannersystems. Investmentstrategy digital transformation,and in particularthe rise of Artificial Intelligence ofThings (AloT),driving increased demand;2)higher operational profitability,primarily as EUV matures and its sharebecomes significant across bothsystems and installed base management;and 3)stronger computationalplatformofsemiconductorfabricationleveragingBigData Valuation WevalueASMLusinga28x2028or1xPEG basedonFY28 earnings,inlinepriceof EUR2,200.We continueto have conviction in ASML'slong-termgrowth outlook, as evident in our forecast of a 30% CAGR in EPS through2030E.Givenourstrongmulti-yeargrowthforecastforASML,welookfurtherout than2026tocapturethegrowthpotential.Wethinkthisapproachbettercaptures itslong-termexposuretoartificial intelligence,semiconductorcapex,andotherstructuralgrowthareas. Risks We highlight thefollowing riskfactors for ASML.If the impact of these riskfactorsismore orlessnegativethanweanticipate,theshareprice coulddeviate significantlyfrom ourtarget price: Technological:ChallengesindevelopmentofEUVtechnologycouldresultindelays and lowermargins. wouldresultinupside/downsiderisktoourestimates. CustomerRisk:ASMLderivesa significantshareof itsrevenues fromafewlargecustomers,andan increase/cut intheircapexcould resultinrisk toourestimates. Macroeconomic:Aweakmacroeconomicenvironmentand/orescalationingeopoliticaltensions resultingin subduedsemiconductorgrowth/increaseincadencecouldcausedownsidetoourestimates of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by“Ac"intheauthorblockor(ii)listed inboldalongsidecontentwhich isattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleAcanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystis certifyingwith respecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalyst listedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsex