WinWay Technology Co Ltd：激进扩张计划支撑强劲收入能见度，目标价上调至15,000新台币

WinWayTechnologyCoLtdIAsiaPacific Equity AnalystTiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.comCharlie Chan +886 2 7712-3032 Aggressive Expansion PlansSupport Strong RevenueVisibility; Stay OW Equity AnalystCharlie.Chan@morganstanley.comDaniel Yen, CFAEquity Analyst +886 2 2730-1725 Equity AnalystDaisy.Dai@morganstanley.com WinWay Technology Co Ltd (6515.TW) Price Target Strengthens our thesis Direction of next 12-monthconsensus EPS Financial results versus consensus Larger package sizes, aggressive pogo pin capacity expansion,rising self-sufficiency, MEMS probe card growth, andhypersocket/cPOupsidesupportstrongrevenuevisibilitythrough2030.WeliftourPTby25%toNT$15,000 1Q26 beat (Pulse): North America contributed 81% of revenue, led by Al demand. CAGR in the next few years: Management expects pogo pin capacity to reach 9mn/month by end-2026, then 14mn/month by 1H27, mainly from Renwu Facility 1.Renwu Facility 2 is expected to start in 2Q27, further lifting capacity to 14mn/month.The current pogo-pin self-sufficiency ratio is ~35-45%; management targets 50-60%for the long term, which we expect to more than offset depreciation. Managementalso plans aggressive capacity expansion through 2030, targeting full build-out ofthe fifth floor in the Renwu Facility 2 and a new building near HQ, supportingrevenue to exceed a 50-60% CAGR in the next few years. It is also evaluatingexpansion in the US and ASEAN. MEMS probe cards to double every year, with hypersocket and CPO as majorgrowth drivers: Winway's MEMS probe card collaboration with Technoproberemains in phase 2, with 2026 demand seen doubling Y/Y and likely to be sustainedas TSMC expands leading-edge capacity. Winway has started shipping CPOequipment and test sockets; it still expects the overall supply chain to mature in2028 (see Winway CPO forum note).Hypersocket addresses high-speed/large-package A/HPC demand, with revenue contribution likely to reach 5% in 2027. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch.Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Lift price target to NT$18,000; stay OW:Wefactor in strong capacity expansionand management's revenue guidance, but slightly trim our 2028 GM assumption toreflect the MEMS ramp, which will still need time to reach a margin-accretive level.With strong order visibility and expansion plans through 2030, and muted Maysales priced in, we expect the stock to trade at 73x 2027e and 34x 2028e EPS, withthe 2025-2028 EPS CAGR seen at 111%. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Strong Capacity Expansion Plan to 2030 month by end-2026,then 14mn/month by 1H27, mainly from Renwu Facility 1.RenwuFacility 2 is expected to start in 2Q27, lifting capacity to 14mn/month; this should furthersupport further scaling of 5k-pin-sockets, with monthly output rising from 4.2k per monthby end-2026 to 7.2k. This implies a self-sufficiency ratio of ~35-45%; management targets50-60% for the long term, which we expect to more than offset depreciation. Verticalintegration also gives WinWay greater control over production lead time, shortening themrelative to an outsourced model and enabling a more agile response to Al cycles. above 45% and, in our view, provide a path to the 50% level, as sockets using in-housepins typically deliver higher margins than those relying on outsourced pins. Contract liabilities vs. revenue WinWay's contract Liabilities grew 7.6% Q/Q and 71% Y/Y, reaching 10% of revenue. Thisincrease reflects stronger customer pre-payments and improves visibility into futurerevenue streams. In our view, this trend supports the outlook for profitability in thecoming quarters. CPO test flow WinWay focuses on CPO/CPC testing interfaces across Insertion 1,3,3.5 and 4. Itssolutions include the EC probe card for insertion 1, optical/electrical test sockets anddouble-sided probing systems for insertions 3/3.5, and HyperSocket for insertion 4.HyperSocket combines spring-probe with elastomer surface contact to improve stability,reduce contact resistance, increase current-carrying capacity, and lower Joule heat.However, we believe WinWay's focus should still be test sockets. Equipment such asdouble-sided probing remains experimental and does not compete with MPI/TEL on thedie-to-die prober. Estimate Revisions and Quarterly Financials in management's strong guidance on capacity expansion and an optimistic outlook for thenext few